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The case for humanitarian aid to North Korea

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Since the impromptu meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un late last month, there have been signs the United States may be prepared to make major concessions—including, so the rumors go, easing economic sanctions—in exchange for a North Korean freeze on some weapons development.

Clearly, Pyongyang would welcome any moves to ease economic sanctions, since news reports suggest that North Korea may once again be facing serious food shortages, and calls from the United Nations for the world to provide humanitarian assistance have grown. For U.S. policymakers, though, sending aid is far from an open-and-shut case. Historically, the United States and other democratic countries have provided help intended for the North Korean people. But such assistance has not always gone to those who needed it most, and Pyongyang strongly resists any kind of international monitoring to try to make sure it does.

Even so, the United States should open its pocketbook. U.S. aid will certainly not fundamentally alter the regime’s posture on security issues, nor will it resolve North Korea’s long-term problems without fundamental reforms to its system of government. But at its core, providing food and medical assistance is an issue of morality and humanity.

In May, the U.N. Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights issued a report stating that some 10.9 million people in the country—approximately 43 percent of the population—suffer from food insecurity, and nearly as many lack access to water, sanitation, and hygiene services. Ten million North Koreans lack access to safe drinking water, and the U.N. estimates that 16 percent do not have access to basic sanitation. Meanwhile, UNICEF notes that while there has been some improvement in recent years, one in five North Korean children suffers from stunted growth.

Natural disasters have aggravated these conditions, but the sad truth is that much of this human misery is manmade. North Korea is a land rich in resources and human capital. Government policies and political ideologies, not droughts or floods, are responsible for the suffering. The simplest proof of this is to contrast North and South Korea. The democratic, free-market South is the 11th most prosperous economy in the world. Recent data on per capita gross domestic product is estimated at $1,700 in the North, versus $37,600 in the South. Both sides of the border have similar geographies and climates.

President Trump has dramatically reduced tensions, but to induce Pyongyang to denuclearize, he’s going to have to offer more. Providing humanitarian assistance shouldn’t be thought of as a lever to bring about political change in North Korea. While North Korea’s government may have a callous attitude toward its people, Americans believe that every life has value. Right now, lives are at stake. We can help to save them, and we should.

[Foreign Policy]

Positive development for Free Joseon embassy activists

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Christopher Ahn, a former U.S. Marine involved in the daytime raid of North Korea’s embassy in Madrid in February was released on bail this week to live in home confinement in California as he awaits possible extradition to Spain.

Ahn’s lawyer, Naeun Rim, said in a statement: “This case continues to unnecessarily endanger the life of an American veteran based on the statements of North Korean officials who lack all credibility. While we will continue to challenge the extradition vigorously in court, the United States government has the power to end this whenever it wants.”

“It’s a sea change in the legal proceedings and public narrative out there,” said Sung-Yoon Lee, a North Korea expert at Tufts University who has been following the case. “Most people were convinced they had broken in and used some egregious violence and now it appears that there’s no evidence.”

Ahn’s lawyers have said that accusations of violence against the North Korean officials are inaccurate and are based on unreliable claims by the North Koreans. Spanish authorities had accused the group of breaking into the Madrid Embassy, tying up the staff, beating them and stealing laptops, phones and documents, but before allowing Ahn’s release, U.S. Magistrate Judge Jean Rosenbluth noted that “nothing corroborates the most serious allegations” against Ahn that he and other assailants “struck and injured some of the North Koreans inside the embassy.”

Henry Song, a Washington-based North Korea activist, said Ahn’s release was good news for defectors who support efforts to undermine Kim Jong Un’s regime. “He is a hero,” Song said, urging the United States not to extradite Ahn to Spain.

Adrian Hong Chang, an alleged accomplice of Ahn who is accused of masterminding the raid, is on the run from U.S. authorities. Hong is in hiding because of potential safety threats by North Korean agents, said his lawyer, Lee Wolosky.

[Washington Post]

Sweden’s unique relationship with North Korea

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Sweden often acts as an intermediary in negotiations between North Korea and Western countries, and has been especially active in improving the ties of North Korea and the United States.

Sweden is also one of the biggest providers of international aid to the “hermit kingdom”, providing about Aus $6.1 million (US$4.3 million) every year.

Back in 1975, Sweden was the first Western country to establish an embassy in North Korea, with the prospect of trade being one of the biggest influencers for these initial ties; Swedish companies such as Volvo, Atlas Copco and Kockums were keen to begin exporting to the Asian country. The export strategy didn’t play out — the 1,000 Volvos that North Korea ordered several decades ago have never been paid for — but it did open diplomatic relations.

Until 2001, when Germany joined this exclusive club, Sweden was the only Western embassy in North Korea, and it is still only one of 25 in the country. Over the years, Sweden has garnered a reputation as a neutral player and its embassy and diplomats have played a crucial role in helping other countries retrieve their citizens from the clutches of North Korea.

The Swedish embassy still represents Australia, Canada, and other Nordic countries, as well as the United States.

The friendly relations between Sweden and North Korea has been demonstrated multiple times, since then-Swedish-Prime Minister Göran Persson visited North Korea in 2001 — the first western leader to do so — for talks on increasing diplomatic ties.

In 2018, that visit was reciprocated when North Korea’s deputy foreign minister visited Sweden to discuss the country’s summit with the US later that year. There were talks for some time that Sweden would host the historic Trump-Kim summit, which was later held in Singapore.

[Australian Broadcasting Corporation]

North Korean food shortages have left generations stunted

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Mass starvation is no longer the crisis it once was in North Korea, but the nation still endures high levels of food insecurity. More than 40 percent of the population is undernourished — up to 10.3 million people don’t get enough to eat, according to the World Food Programme. And the political, social and health consequences of the famine a generation ago still linger today.

Severe food shortages in the mid-1990s devastated the country. Some 3 million people died, and many others barely survived on a diet of contraband grain or watery gruel.

And long after the worst of the famine, North Koreans continue to bear its marks. Through his research, Daniel Jong Schwekendiek a professor at Sungkyunkwan University in Seoul who has researched nutrition in North Korea, found that:
– Contemporary South Korean preschool children are up to 3 kilograms (about 6 and a half pounds) heavier than North Korean preschoolers.
– South Korean women on average weigh 4 to 9 kilograms (8.8 to 19.9 pounds) more than their peers in the North.
– Those differences are the result of “socio-economic living conditions,”, not any genetic differences between the populations north and south of the Demilitarized Zone.

For North Korean children who defect to South Korea, their weight catches up within two years. As for their height, that depends on when the child enters South Korea and what diet they are exposed to, according to Lee Soo-kyung, nutrition professor at Inha University in South Korea.

In recent years, nutritional conditions in North Korea have improved. The number of North Korean children under the age of 5 suffering from stunting, or short stature resulting from  chronic malnutrition, has fallen to about 19 percent, according to UNICEF, down from 28 percent in 2012. But that still leaves 1 in 5 North Korean children under 5 years old stunted.

Life in the capital, Pyongyang,  presents the most flagrant example of inequality. Stunting affects 10 percent of children in Pyongyang, compared to 32 percent of those in rural Ryanggang considered moderately or severely stunted, according to UNICEF.

[CBS]

North Korea suffering worst downturn likely since 1990s Famine

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How much are sanctions hurting Kim Jong Un? North Korea’s economy hasn’t been in such bad shape since his father was battling floods, droughts and a famine that some estimates say killed as much as 10% of the population.

While North Korea’s isolation, secrecy and dearth of official statistics make estimates difficult, the economy probably contracted more than 5% last year, according to Kim Byung-yeon, an economics professor at Seoul National University. “As long as sanctions remain, time is on the U.S. side,” said Kim. “Sanctions are the most effective means to draw North Korea into negotiations, so they should not be lifted or eased without major progress on denuclearization.” Read more

A decline of 5% would mean that international curbs on North Korean trade — measures crucially backed by China — have put the country on its weakest economic footing since 1997. (Back then, the isolated nation was reeling from policy missteps under Kim Jong Il and a famine so bad some defectors reported rumors of cannibalism.)

The Bank of Korea estimated a 3.5% contraction in 2017, leaving North Korea an economy roughly the size of the U.S. state of Vermont. The South Korean central bank’s annual report on its northern neighbor — due for release later this month — will provide a fresh look at the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s pressure campaign just as the two sides prepare to restart talks.

One thing sanctions aren’t doing: stopping Kim from developing the nuclear arsenal that prompted his showdown with Trump. (The cost launching the more than 30 ballistic missiles Kim Jong Un has tested since taking power in 2011 comes in at about $100 million, according to estimates by South Korea’s defense ministry.) Nevertheless, Trump is counting on the economic pressure to compel Kim to compromise.

[Bloomberg]

Statistics on North Korea: Sanctions bite

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North Korea is heavily reliant on China, which accounts for about 90% of the country’s trade. And Beijing’s decision to support tougher international sanctions against North Korea following its sixth nuclear test in September 2017 has put severe pressure on the economy.

  • China’s imports from North Korea have slowed to a trickle, falling about 90% year on year in 2018, according to the Korea International Trade Association.
  • The drying up of hard currency due to plunging trade is potentially creating an “economic crisis” for Kim, the state-run Korea Development Institute in Sejong, said earlier this month.
  • Exports of food and fuel from China to the North have also tumbled. The fuel crunch has exacerbated decades of economic stagnation. North Korea’s oil consumption has fallen by about 80% from 1991 to 2017, according to the United Nations World Food Program (WFP).
  • Less fuel has meant less diesel to run farm tractors and irrigation pumps, hitting farms already affected by droughts last summer. Last year, farmers had a little less than 90 milliliters (3 fluid ounces) of fuel a day to farm an area about the size of two soccer fields, according to calculations based on WFP data.
  • The sanctions have led to shortages of other necessary agricultural items, including machinery and spare parts, and farm output has dropped in the provinces that make up North Korea’s southern and western breadbaskets, the World Food Program and Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations said in a May assessment.
  • Paddy production declined at least 17% last year in South Hwanghae and North Pyongan provinces, regions that together account for half of North Korea’s rice.

In April, Kim Jong Un replaced his prime minister and leading technocrat Pak Pong Ju with Kim Jae Ryong, a veteran overseer of one of North Korea’s most impoverished provinces whose reputation for weathering tough times suggests leader Kim may also see a need to dig in rather than experiment should the sanctions continue.

[Bloomberg]

Chinese leader urged Trump to ease North Korea sanctions ‘in due course’

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Chinese President Xi Jinping urged U.S. President Donald Trump last month at the G20 summit in Osaka to show flexibility in dealings with North Korea and ease sanctions on the country “in due course,” China’s Foreign Ministry said on Friday.

China signed up for strict U.N. sanctions following repeated North Korean nuclear and missile tests but also has suggested they could be eased as a reward for good behavior.

A senior U.S. official said U.S. policy continued to be to maintain sanctions on North Korea until it gives up its nuclear weapons.

After Trump recently met Kim at the Demilitarized Zone along the North’s border with South Korea, Trump announced that both sides would set up teams to push forward stalled talks aimed at getting North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons. US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, said they would likely happen “sometime in July.”

[Reuters]

“Denuclearization Lite”

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Over the past couple of weeks, there have been increasing signs that the Trump administration – and particularly the president himself – is moderating its position on North Korea’s stockpile of nuclear weapons. Gone are the adamant statements that the U.S. will only accept complete, immediate and irreversible denuclearization.

No serious observer of the Korean situation in general and Kim Jong Un in particular would bet that the impetuous young leader would ever willingly surrender his nuclear weapons. They are obviously his best guarantee against U.S.-imposed regime change. As the certainty of this has sunk in for the Trump team, they are seeking another path to a demonstrable foreign policy “win” that can be touted in the run-up to the 2020 election.

While the ultimate shape of what might be termed “denuclearization lite” remains unclear, one can envision the general outline. For starters, the U.S. would likely demand a full, verifiable accounting of North Korea’s active nuclear and missile programs, with specific geographic positions identified. The U.S. could also push for a reduction in the total stockpile to a number that international inspectors could keep under permanent observation, say 50 warheads of a specified level of kilotons each. The warheads would be held in a small number of locations, three or so, each with a technical oversight system (cameras, electronic monitors) to alert inspectors if the facilities were breached. There could be a similar plan for the launcher systems, but they would be based different parts of the country than the warheads. All of this would be verified by international teams, which would have a mandate to inspect the facilities at any time.

In exchange, the North would receive sanctions relief and a large amount of development aid, although perhaps not of the kind Trump famously proposed for North Korea’s beaches in his first meeting with Kim: “Boy, look at that view. Wouldn’t that make a great condo?”

There are plenty of valid objections to such a scheme. One is that Trump wouldn’t be delivering fully on the problem he has correctly identified: Making sure Kim can’t attack the U.S. with a nuclear weapon. On the other hand, America and its allies live under that threat from Russia and China, and are “comfortable” with other nuclear-armed nations such as India, Israel and Pakistan.   

[Read James Stavridis’ full Opinion piece in Bloomberg]

What really happened at the North Korean Embassy in Madrid?

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[According to the Free Joseon official website:] In early 2019, Christopher Ahn, Adrian Hong, and their colleagues – as part of The Provisional Government of Free Joseon (formerly called Cheollima Civil Defense) – traveled to Madrid, Spain, to rescue North Korean diplomats who had requested their help to defect.

According to Spanish media reports, Adrian Hong, Christopher Ahn and others were welcomed into the embassy in broad daylight by a defecting North Korean diplomat. More footage obtained by Fox News reportedly shows the men interviewing diplomats who wished to defect to freedom. At this time, Spanish court documents indicate that a North Korean woman, who presumably sought to prevent her colleagues from defecting, jumped from a window and alerted local Spanish police to what she fabricated as an ‘assault’ and ‘raid.’

The North Korean diplomats who originally intended to defect witnessed a heavily armed Spanish police force positioning outside the embassy, and understandably abandoned their plans to defect out of fear of being repatriated back to North Korea to face certain torture and execution.

According to Spanish court documents and media reports, Ahn, Hong and others engaged in nearly 5 hours of conversation and interviews with the North Korean diplomats who had wished to defect. Given the likelihood that they were to be arrested by Spanish police for this rescue attempt, media reports then described how the rescue team escaped the embassy and immediately returned to the United States.

Adrian Hong then reportedly arranged a meeting with the FBI in New York where he volunteered the intelligence, including what is likely an encryption cipher used by the current North Korean regime to plan assassinations and arms sales abroad that threaten the United States homeland. Rather than demonstrating gratitude, the involved United States Government officials, who as per media reports have become increasingly desperate to appease the current North Korean totalitarian regime, allegedly took the critical intelligence and then leaked information on the identities of Christopher Ahn, Adrian Hong, and their fellow rescuers.

Spanish court documents show that Madrid then issued extradition warrants based solely on the information provided by the United States and the false testimonies of North Korean diplomats.

Christopher Ahn, Adrian Hong, and the rest of the rescue team risked their lives to deliver North Korean defectors to safety, and are now high priority targets of a regime that has committed countless acts of brazen assassination.

[Source: Freedom for Free Joseon]

Australian student expelled from North Korea denies spying

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An Australian student who was expelled from North Korea denied on Tuesday that he had been spying on the authoritarian state while he lived there. Alek Sigley, 29, was released last week after being detained for several days, with Pyongyang later accusing him of promoting propaganda against the country online.

“The allegation that I am a spy is (pretty obviously) false,” he wrote on Twitter, adding that he was “well both mentally and physically”. The tweets were the first comments addressing the incident from Sigley, who speaks fluent Korean and had been one of just a handful of Westerners living and studying in North Korea. His disappearance, which prompted deep concern about his fate, came just days before a G20 summit and a landmark meeting between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

After he was released and flew to Japan, North Korean state media published a report saying the country had deported the student for spying.

“I may never again walk the streets of Pyongyang, a city that holds a very special place in my heart,” Sigley, who speaks fluent Korean, tweeted Tuesday. “I may never again see my teachers and my partners in the travel industry, whom I’ve come to consider close friends. But that’s life.”

From the capital, Sigley organized tours to the country and ran a number of social media sites which posted a stream of apolitical content about life in one of the world’s most secretive nations. His blog posts focused on everyday Pyongyang — from the city’s dining scene to North Korean app reviews.

He also wrote columns for specialist website NK News, which North Korean state media called an anti-regime news outlet in its report on Saturday.

[AFP]