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Guam is the only US territory North Korea could hope to reach with its missiles

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[From an analysis by John Schilling, an American aerospace engineer with more than 20 years of experience, specializing in rocket and spacecraft propulsion and mission analysis.]

North Korea recently did something it has never done before: it tried to launch its Musudan  missile four times in two months, and failed every time. North Korea’s missiles usually fail the first time. In the past, the North Koreans have always done what sensible engineers do in the face of failure — stand down, figure out what went wrong, and fix it before trying again.

The Musudan missile seems to be based on a 1960s-era Soviet design with some local modifications. It appeared to be a mobile intermediate-range missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead as far as the critical U.S. base at Guam.

Guam is the only sovereign U.S. territory North Korea could hope to reach with its current weapons.

Any North Korean test also raises the question of capability: Can they blow us up with nuclear missiles now? The answer is pretty clearly that they can’t blow up anybody but themselves with Musudan missiles. It is possible that they will retrench and give their engineers time to fix the problems, and maybe come back with a working missile in a year or two.

North Korea has also been working on a small ballistic-missile submarine, and a new solid-fuel intermediate-range missile. These have the potential to be more capable and versatile systems than the Musudan would have been, but they aren’t likely to enter service before 2020.

Today, all we have to worry about are the thousand or so short- and medium-range missiles with which North Korea could attack targets in South Korea and Japan, and the dozen or so nuclear warheads they may be able to mount on some of those missiles.

[CNN]

The Kim family of North Korea as deities

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Many North Koreans call Kim Jong-un “The Marshal” and express towards him, as for his father and grandfather, the emotions usually reserved for a deity. For me, this worship has been a source of minor embarrassment, especially their custom to bow to the images or photos of the leaders.

This is shocking for us, but not unusual in Asia. Before 1945, the neighboring Japanese, people of great culture and refinement, worshiped their Emperor as the Supreme Deity, and even now some of them continue to venerate him as a Shinto god. The Japanese ruled over Korea for 40 years, and during that time, they implanted some ideas, notably that of a Divine Ruler.

Politically, North Korea has little to do with Marxism, or with Socialism.

In fact, it is a deeply religious society based on worship of the three Kims.

If asked, the N Koreans say their rulers have been “sent by Heaven”. They ascribe every good thing in their life to their Heaven-sent rulers. They tell of miracles they performed. A modern-looking lady in Pyongyang has told me she saw an apparition of Kim II in the sky on the night of his demise. I saw people weep when death of Kim Jong-il is mentioned – and that some five years after the event.

[The Unz Review ]

In seeking to understand the North Koreans

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The Koreans are fiercely independent folk, ethnocentric to the extreme, nationalists for whom Korea is above all and the Koreans are a race apart.

Actually, in this (and many other) aspect they are quite similar to the Japanese, their neighbors and former colonial masters for some forty years. But the Japanese went through seventy years of Americanization, westernization, liberalization and demilitarization after their defeat in 1945. The unreconstructed Koreans retained their national pride, so they are more similar to the Japanese of 1930s.

We must keep in mind the most cruel Korean War of the cruel Twentieth Century, for otherwise we can’t understand the Korean character. During the Korean War, the American command “turned its fury on all standing structures … cities and towns all over North Korea went up in flames [until] Pyongyang resembled Hiroshima”, says Encyclopedia Britannica. The US dropped more ordnance on defenseless Korea than it did on Germany or Japan.

Kim I (Kim Il Sung) began pursuit of nuclear weapons. I’ve been told that he decided it had to be done after the Cuban missile crisis. … And I’ve been told by many Koreans that since the Korean War, North Koreans have lived in constant fear they will be nuked by the US. For them, an H-bomb is the only guarantee against a possible US attack.

Just a few months ago the US and their South Korean allies, some four hundred thousand troops altogether, practiced the conquest of Pyongyang and elimination of the North Korean government. Imagine if Russia were to land nearly half a million soldiers in Cuba and begin to practice how to sack Washington and destroy the White House! The US fleet would come all over Cuba in a jiffy. So one can definitely understand why the North Korean leadership is worried.

The North Koreans aren’t brainwashed zombies, but perfectly human, though they belong to a very distinct and different culture. Whenever I had an occasion, I had a couple of beers with locals in a local pub, where all tried to offer me another mug of their perfect natural brew. Again, the Koreans are cautious but not paranoid in their contacts with foreigners. … And they are fond of beer.

[The Unz Review]

Political correctness North Korean style – Part 1

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For foreigners who visit North Korea, minders are a constant presence. Besides translating, they tell journalists and tourists where they can and can’t go, and impart the official line on everything from relations with the U.S. to the proper way to refer to the regime’s leaders. And they have a few pet peeves:

What to Call the Country. North Korea is not North Korea. Rather, it is the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, DPR Korea or DPRK. Completely out of bounds is “the hermit kingdom”; minders say the term is deeply insulting to them. South Korea, with whom a war in the 1950s culminated in an uneasy truce, is known in print as “south Korea,” with the south in lower case.

How to Address Leaders. North Korea has a government, but there are only three people who really matter–and two of them are dead. Kim Il Sung, who founded the country and died in 1994, is often “eternal president,” or “great general.” His son Kim Jong Il is “chairman” or “dear leader.” Kim Jong Un, who took power after his father passed away in late 2011, may be called “supreme leader” or “dear respected”.

Those Kim Pins. All North Koreans wear a pin over their left breast featuring the face of Kim Il Sung or Kim Jong Il–or both. The most common one is a shining red flag with the two men’s portraits. But don’t call them pins. That word undermines their significance. As one minder said after consulting translation software on his phone, they are “badges.”   continued

Political correctness North Korean style – Part 2

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The United States. Mentioning the U.S. can result in a long lecture. There is no such thing as U.S. relations, only “hostile U.S. policy.” Any hardship faced by North Korea is the fault of the U.S. and its “puppet” South Korea.

North Korea’s Nukes. Asked his thoughts on ties, Om Myong Chin, a 57-year-old who works at a battery factory, said: “If the U.S. government stops its hostile policy against our country, with time relations might improve.” The minders were quick to agree.

Difficult Questions. A minder’s frequent answer to a question is: “That is a difficult question.” Difficult questions include: “Why am I not allowed to go out of the hotel by myself?” Answer: “People’s bad emotions about the U.S. are running high and I might not be able to protect you.” Questions that might suggest criticism of the leaders are often not translated or acknowledged.

When a Minder is Not a Minder. “The minder’s job is to hide the embarrassing inner side of North Korean society from the eyes of outsiders,” said Ahn Chan Il, a North Korean defector.  Minders don’t want to be called minders. “I am not minding you,” said one. “We are guiding you. Please call me your guide.”

[Bloomberg]

BBC correspondent offers glimpse into the heart of the North Korean state

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Excerpt from an article by Rupert Wingfield-Hayes, BBC correspondent detained in North Korea:

[After being stopped at the airport, while departing North Korea] I was told that my reporting had insulted the Korean people, and that I needed to admit my mistakes. They produced copies of three articles that had been published on the BBC website, as I reported on the visit of the Nobel laureates.

“Do you think Korean people are ugly?” the older man asked.
“No,” I answered.

“Do you think Korean people have voices like dogs?”
“No,” I answered again.

“Then why do you write these things?!” he shouted.

I was confused. What could they mean? One of the articles was presented to me, the offending passage circled in black marker pen:

“The grim-faced customs officer is wearing one of those slightly ridiculous oversized military caps that they were so fond of in the Soviet Union. It makes the slightly built North Korean in his baggy uniform comically top heavy. “Open,” he grunts, pointing at my mobile phone. I dutifully punch in the passcode. He grabs it back and goes immediately to photos. He scrolls through pictures of my children skiing, Japanese cherry blossom, the Hong Kong skyline. Apparently satisfied he turns to my suitcase. “Books?” he barks. No, no books. “Movies?” No, no movies. I am sent off to another desk where a much less gruff lady is already looking through my laptop.”

“Are they serious?” I thought. They had taken “grim-faced” to mean “ugly”, and the use of the word “barks” as an indication that I thought they sounded like dogs.

“I have studied English literature,” he said. “Do you think I do not understand what these expressions mean? … They began going through my articles word by word – finding offence in almost every one. But the words were not important; they were ammunition to throw at me, to force me to confess.

Kenneth Bae former prisoner in North Korea explains his “crime”

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Kenneth Bae, a Korean-American missionary imprisoned in North Korea, recounted last Wednesday how he had engaged in a kind of spiritual tourism to a little-known city in the northwestern corner of the country. Between 2011 and 2012, Bae brought more than 300 people on tours to North Korea [as part of his vision to evangelize North Koreans].

But on his 18th trip, he said, he made what he called a “very crucial mistake” — inadvertently bringing a computer hard drive along in a briefcase he meant to leave behind in China. The hard drive had files about his missionary work. It also contained a video of emaciated North Korean children scrounging in the dirt for food — footage Mr. Bae said a friend had sent him years earlier and that he not ever fully watched.

After the banned material was discovered, he was held in seclusion in a hotel in northeastern North Korea for a month while officials grilled him. He was given little to eat, generally a few bites of rice and some wilted vegetables, and was forced to watch government propaganda every evening. But he was not beaten or overtly physically abused by authorities.

He eventually confessed that one of the documents on his hard drive was a plan for what he described as “Operation Jericho” — an effort to bring tourists into North Korea to pray and spread the love of God. They would not have openly evangelized, but he had hoped that the “walls” isolating North Koreans from the rest of the world would come crumbling down, just as the walls of Jericho fell in the Bible story.

The book outlines how North Korean officials did not understand the plan’s metaphorical nature, and how Mr. Bae struggled to explain that he wasn’t trying to actually overthrow the government. The government sentenced him to 15 years in prison.

“I had to make a choice,” he said, adding that he began praying deeply as he pondered whether to fight his incarceration or somehow embrace it. He finally determined that it was “God’s will” that had put him there. “After that moment,” he said, “my perspective of life in prison changed because I was no longer there as a prisoner, but I was there as God’s ambassador — somebody who was sent from God to do God’s work.”

It was that belief that ultimately brought him through the ordeal, Mr. Bae said, adding that it has since made him realize that he had a new mission: to remind the world not to forget the ordinary people who are suffering in North Korea.

“We need to differentiate between the government and the people. The people are suffering without knowing what is coming next for them,” Mr. Bae said. “We as people outside need to continue to stand up for them and reach out to them and remember them through prayer support and any other blessing we can give.”

[Washington Times]

Is South Korea’s spying apparatus broken?

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When it comes to spying on North Korea, rival South Korea seems to be wrong almost as much as it’s right.

Seoul’s intelligence agents get battered in the press and by lawmakers for their gaffes, including one regarding Ri Yong Gil, the former head of North Korea’s military. Officials in Seoul’s National Intelligence Service (NIS), the country’s main spy agency, reportedly said Ri had been executed, but at this month’s ruling-party congress, he was seen not only alive but also in possession of several new titles.

While spying on perhaps the world’s most cloistered, suspicious, difficult-to-read country is no easy task, repeated blunders raise questions about whether South Korea’s multibillion-dollar spying apparatus is broken.

South Korean spies are thought to closely monitor Pyongyang’s media for details, to talk to defectors in Seoul, especially those who claim sources in North Korea, and to cultivate contacts in the North. The problem is that it’s unclear how reliable the sources are.

The NIS gives closed briefings to lawmakers, who then relay what they hear to South Korean press. Foreign media commonly cite those local reports, but by that point the information has passed through several hands. That makes it difficult to gauge the NIS’s level of certainty, understand how the information was obtained or determine how reliable its sources are.

When spies leak information directly to the local press, they usually demand that reporters refer to them only as “a source familiar with North Korea affairs.” This allows the NIS and other South Korean spy agencies to deny they were the source if the information is bad, which is what’s currently happening in the Ri case.

[AP]

Why it’s nukes over food priority in North Korea

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North Korea’s recent actions suggest that their nuclear aspirations supersede the immediate needs of its citizens. While its people go without the most basic day-to-day needs, the North Korean government continues to invest 25 percent of its GDP on military spending and it’s the only country to engage in nuclear detonations in the 21st century, despite mounting international pressure.

Although North Korea’s observed policy to choose its military over food might seem illogical, the rationale for this stance lies in their history. A look at North Korea’s struggle for sovereignty provides context as to why it is Nuclear weapons are a core pillar of the reclusive country’s culture and protection against foreign interests.

For a country with a long history of suffering under imperialism, nuclear weapons are seen as the deterrent that ensures its independence. Kim Il Sung, the first president of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, pursued the prestige of nuclear power and its potential to preserve the country’s independence. Even during the widespread starvation of the 1990s, North Korea refused to give up its nuclear program. Kim Jong Il (Il Sung’s son and successor) turned these nuclear dreams into a reality, with the first successful detonation in 2006. Under Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s current supreme leader, the desire for nuclear weapons continues to take priority over the people’s well-being.

Even though North Korea’s nuclear dreams create a humanitarian nightmare for its citizens, nuclear aspirations are rooted deep within the North Korean psyche. One North Korean told NK News, “Our nation may still be poor. But we can be one of the most powerful and influential nations in the sense of national defense.”

[Hearst Seattle Media]

Obama says US prepping shield to counter North Korea

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The United States is readying a “shield” to protect itself from “low-level” threats from North Korea, which has conducted multiple nuclear and ballistic missile tests this year, according to President Obama.

“One of the things that we have been doing is spending a lot more time positioning our missile development systems, so that even as we try to resolve the underlying problem of nuclear development inside of North Korea, we’re also setting up a shield that can at least block the relatively low-level threats that they’re posing now,” Obama said in an interview with “CBS News” that aired Tuesday.

The comments suggest the U.S. is moving ahead with plans to deploy a new missile defense system in South Korea.

American diplomats have tried to assuage Chinese concerns about the system. South Korea is a regional rival and Beijing is worried it would pose a threat to Chinese national security.

But Obama said the U.S. does not want to take any chances with “erratic” North Korea and its leader, Kim Jong-un, whom he described as “personally irresponsible.”

“North Korea is a massive challenge,” Obama said. “They are erratic enough — their leader is personally irresponsible enough — that we don’t want them getting close,” he continued. “But it’s not something that lends itself toward an easy solution.”

[The Hill]