Category: China

China’s crackdown on dissent described as the harshest in decades

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China is in the midst of what many overseas scholars say is its harshest crackdown on human rights and civil society in decades. Since Xi Jinping came came to power nearly four years ago, hundreds of activists, lawyers, writers, publishers and employees of nongovernmental groups have been rounded up. Internet news sites have been ordered to stop publishing reports from sources that aren’t sanctioned by the state.

“As an old timer who’s been studying China since the Mao era, I have to say it’s the worst I’ve seen since then,” said Susan L. Shirk, chair of the 21st Century China Center at UC San Diego. The current crackdown, Shirk said, represents a turnabout from what appeared to be relatively steady gains in individual freedom in China. “We didn’t anticipate what looks like a U-turn back to the bad old days of a highly repressive police state.”

For much of the outside world, grasping the extent of the campaign has not been easy, given a constant flood of headlines that seem to showcase ever-deeper diplomatic and commercial connections between China and the West.

Rebukes from overseas seem to matter little to Xi, a scholar at the Chinese University of Hong Kong Willy Lam added: “Xi likes to thumb his nose at international opinion … to underscore his status as the new Mao Tse-tung by not giving a damn about what the major Western leaders, authors or media are saying about China.”

“What Xi Jinping is doing is, he’s really stirring up a Cold War mentality…. You’re either with China or against China–and Western values, universal values, are against China,” Shirk says.

[Los Angeles Times]

Are UN sanctions against North Korea working?

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It continues to be difficult to gauge the effectiveness of the United Nations sanctions imposed on North Korea in March.

While prices for essential goods in the North remain stable, there are reports that business is stagnating at the economic development zones set up to attract foreign investment. The lack of international investment is, to some degree, the result of the U.N. sanctions that place increased financial restrictions on companies that do business with North Korea, and U.S. sanctions that authorize the seizure of assets from international organizations and individuals involved with banned North Korean industries like mining and banking.

But Adam Cathcart, an East Asia expert at Britain’s Leeds University notes that even without sanctions, international companies are reluctant to invest in North Korea’s economic development zones because they do “not provide enough infrastructure.”

There have also been reports that food and fuel prices in North Korea have not been affected by the new sanctions imposed this year. Analysts credit the growth of semi-legal private markets under leader Kim Jong Un for keeping food and fuel supplies stable despite the sanctions.

Beijing’s enforcement of international sanctions is considered crucial because 90 percent of North Korean trade flows either to or through China. North Korea analyst Andrei Lankov with Kookmin University in Seoul recently told Radio Free Asia that … “if sanctions implementation begins to threaten the survival of the Kim Jong Un regime, China will pull back.”

[VoA]

More on North Korean defection in Hong Kong

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North Korean national Jong Yol Ri snuck away from the 57th International Mathematical Olympiad at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. and on July 16 found refuge at the South Korean Consulate General in Hong Kong.

It is believed it was the first time that a North Korean defector had abdicated in Hong Kong since 1996, before the United Kingdom handed the city back to China. And it’s a situation that could test Beijing’s relations with Seoul and Pyongyang.

Hong Kong resident Owen Lau Kwun-hang said the recent case of Jong Yol Ri should prompt widespread discussion among the community on how Hong Kong should be responding when defectors from North Korea surface. “At least people would know what to do … and when necessary, a well-informed society could apply pressure on relevant authorities if the status of a defector is at risk,” he said.

Largely unknown to many, the North Korean Defectors Concern (NKDC) has recently been thrust into limelight by media organizations seeking comment since the North Korean defector sought refuge in Hong Kong. Lau and three friends founded the NKDC in 2012,  a group focused on advocating for human rights and protesting Beijing’s repatriation of defectors from the secretive state.

As part of the NKDC’s advocacy and education efforts, Lau will host the annual North Korea Human Rights Film Festival at the Chinese University from August 12 to 14. The group is hoping to have a number of other North Korean defectors attend the festival for sharing sessions.

It was a chance refueling stop somewhere between the North Korean capital of Pyongyang and the border town of Sinuiju that gave four Hong Kong students a forbidden glimpse into the secretive state back in 2012. When the train stopped, Owen Lau Kwun-hang said they were confronted by a group of beggars pleading for food. “An elderly woman with her grandchildren came up to us. We gave them cakes,” Lau, now a secondary school liberal studies teacher, recalled.

[South China Morning Post]

China steps up repatriation of North Korean refugees

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China is taking a more active role in repatriating North Korean refugees, as relations between Beijing and Seoul have deteriorated in recent weeks over the deployment of THAAD. The repatriation is a break from a trend toward “looking the other way” when North Korean defectors make their way into China, a source said.

Chinese security officers now encourage local residents to report defectors, providing award money to Chinese citizens who turn in undocumented North Koreans. Chinese public security officials are offering $150 to individuals reporting a defector. For Chinese citizens who directly apprehend and turn in a defector, the award is $300. There is also a fine of $450 for anyone assisting a North Korea refugee, according to the report.

The policy has resulted in an increase of arrests and decreased chances of a successful defection, the source said.

The source also said the new measures are connected to a recent trend by the government in Beijing to come to North Korea’s defense as China has grown increasingly critical of Seoul’s decision to deploy a U.S. anti-missile defense system on the peninsula.

[UPI]

A summary of East Asia regional politics and tensions

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Hawkish Tomomi Inada, just installed as Japan’s defense minister, will be watched closely by China and South Korea, where Japan’s legacy of military aggression before and during World War Two remains an open wound.

Japan has already said it is upgrading its missile defenses in time for the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games to counter more advanced North Korean weapons, part of increased military spending in the region that reflects worsening ties.

China is North Korea’s main ally, although Beijing disapproves of Pyongyang’s nuclear program. Japan, and Inada, may reach out to China and others as they seek to neutralize the threat to security posed by North Korea.

Japan and China both claim jurisdiction over islands in the East China Sea. Rather than confront China directly by sailing warships past its man-made island bases in the sea, Japan is providing equipment and training to the Southeast Asian nations, including the Philippines and Vietnam, which are most opposed to China’s territorial ambitions.

Lastly, Beijing’s most powerful adversary in Asia is the United States, with its Seventh Fleet operating from bases in Japan and South Korea.

[Reuters]

China and Russia developing their own missile defense systems

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During a regular Ministry of National Defense press briefing July 28, China’s Senior Colonel Yang Yujun said that Beijing is “deeply dissatisfied” and “firmly opposed” to the U.S.’s proposed THAAD deployment. He said, “We will pay close attention to the relevant actions of the US and [South Korea] and will take necessary measures to maintain national strategic security as well as regional equilibrium.”

At the monthly press briefing, Yang indicated that China is developing its own missile defense system. He stated that “to develop suitable capabilities of missile defense is necessary for China to maintain national security and improve defense capabilities.”

Yang’s statements on THAAD and China’s missile defense capabilities suggest that China is preparing to take action in order to shift the regional balance of power in its favor. What is troubling for the US and the ROK is that China may not do this alone.

At the fourth China-Russia Northeast Asia security consultation in Moscow last Thursday, China and Russia agreed to “proactively consider strengthening bilateral coordinating measures” to counter the threat posed by THAAD. During the meeting, Chinese and Russian representatives argued that the deployment of THAAD “will exert negative influence upon the strategic balance, security and stability in the world and in the region.”

At the fifth World Peace Forum held in mid-July, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Zhang Yesui said that the coverage and capabilities of THAAD would exceed the needs of the Korean Peninsula and undermine the strategic and security interests of other regional actors. Zhang also argued that this missile defense system will “harm the strategic balance in the region” and “aggravate the armament race,” severely impacting regional and global stability.

The US “strengthens regional security and stability in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region” with more bombers

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The US Air Force will be sending a force of supersonic cruise-missile capable strike bombers to their bases off the coast of North Korea.

Last week Kim Jong Un declared his secretive nation was now in all our war with America after the world’s leading superpower “crossed the red line” over military buildup near their borders.

Rather than be scared off by this, the United States is doubling down. B-1B Lancer bombers will move into the US Pacific Command’s Andersen Air Force Base on the island of Guam to replace the fleet of ageing B-52 Stratofortresses currently based there.This will be the first time the Lancers have been on the island in ten years.

Around 300 US airmen will also join the squadron, but the US Air Force has not confirmed the number of bombers being dispatched.

The US Air Force said in a statement: “The B-1 units …provide a significant rapid global strike capability that enables our readiness and commitment to deterrence, offers assurance to our allies, and strengthens regional security and stability in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region.”

[Daily Star]

How big of a threat is North Korea?

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Under the leadership of 33-year-old Kim Jong Un, who came to power upon his father’s death in 2011, the pace of North Korean nuclear and missile tests has accelerated dramatically. His tyrannical regime now has an estimated 20 nuclear warheads — and is adding a new weapon to that stockpile every six weeks or so, experts believe.

North Korea has already successfully mounted a small nuclear warhead on a 1,500 km–range Rodong missile that can reach South Korea and Japan — and is on course to develop 13,000 km–range intercontinental ballistic missiles targeting the continental U.S. by early next decade, according to observers at Johns Hopkins University. The U.S. ignores North Korea’s growing nuclear arsenal — and the instability of its erratic leader — at its peril, says Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “Just because Pyongyang wants us to pay attention,” Fitzpatrick told The Economist, “that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t.”

The U.N. Security Council has just passed the toughest sanctions in two decades. However, the success of the sanctions will depend almost entirely on China — Pyongyang’s most influential ally, and the nation with which it does 90 percent of its trade. If the North Korean regime collapses, experts agree, there will be absolute chaos. There would be widespread looting by the country’s starving citizens, and violence in the gulags holding the country’s 120,000 political prisoners. Millions of people would rush the border into China, and South Korean and U.S. troops would be forced to occupy a devastated and dysfunctional country.

In his final days, Kim might choose to pass the nuclear weapons under his control to terrorists — or even launch them himself, as a final act of suicidal revenge. The regime’s collapse would probably spark a brutal civil war with very high stakes, says North Korea expert Andrei Lankov — like “Syria with nukes.”

[The Week]

China commentary on THAAD deployment by US

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[Xinhua commentary] – With the installation of an anti-missile missile system that can hardly cover Seoul but is able to spy on China and Russia’s Far East, the United States aims to defend nobody in East Asia, but its insatiable appetite for hegemony and military advantage.

The hidden agenda of Uncle Sam in deploying the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system (THAAD) on the southeastern part of the Korean Peninsula is perfectly based on its excuse of a so-called “missile threat” from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), which is deemed as “rogue state” and “axis of evil” by Washington.

Defending allies from bullying by missiles of a “rogue state” naturally strengthens Washington’s moral high ground. Nevertheless, the reality is far less noble than what Uncle Sam portraits.

The fact that THAAD shields all U.S. barracks on the peninsula while leaving Seoul and its surrounding cities housing almost half of the country’s population unprotected completely unmasks Uncle Sam’s hidden agenda.

For starters, deploying THAAD in South Korea is a crucial step to heal the Achilles heel of Washington’s anti-missile missile system in the Asia Pacific, which has long been nagged by its inadequate recognition ability.

With the help of THAAD’s X band radar commanding surveillance of an area that extends over 1,200 miles (1,900 kilometers) from the peninsula, i.e. almost half of China’s territory and the southern part of Russia’s Far East, the United States can effectively and immediately raise the recognition accuracy.

The second part of Washington’s hidden agenda also concerns with the X band radar: If deployed, THAAD could help the U.S. army to collect radar data of warheads and decoys of China and Russia’s strategic missiles by monitoring their experiments, thus enable the United States to neutralize their nuclear deterrence.

For all that, deploying THAAD in South Korea to encounter the so-called “missile threat” from a “rogue state” is yet another self-directed and self-acted Hollywood-style drama of Uncle Sam. What lies under the savior’s costume is clear and simple — his strategic anxiety and sateless appetite for supremacy and upper hand.

North Korean math whiz who defected in Hong Kong

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The North Korean defector who mysteriously snuck away during an international mathematics contest in Hong Kong is believed to be Jong Yol Ri, a three-time silver medalist at the annual competition, the South China Morning Post has learnt.

A photo of Jong was sent to a Whatsapp chat group of some 100 university students helping at the 57th International Mathematical Olympiad a day after the team of six North Korean students were last seen at the event’s closing ceremony. They were asked to look for the math whiz. No one responded to the message, the source said.

CCTV footage from the university is understood to show a student leaving the campus alone.

It is believed that subsequently, a defector sought refuge at the local South Korean Consulate General, more than 20km away.The Consulate General remained tight-lipped, saying it was the South Korean government’s position that it would not confirm anything about the defector.

The North Korean delegation left with one member short and flew back to Pyongyang via the mainland on July 19.

[South China Morning Post]