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Predictions for Kim Jong Un’s North Korea

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The Chosun Ilbo and the Ilmin International Relations Institute at Korea University questioned 135 North Korea experts — 86 from overseas, including the U.S., China, Japan, Russia and Europe — and 49 from South Korea.

Almost half the experts predict that Kim Jong Un will consolidate his grip on power within the next three to five years, but about one-third predict he will face increasing internal instability. But the chances of a coup d’état or regime collapse are seen as slim.

Asked to guess how much longer the Kim Jong-un regime will last, over one-third said five to 10 years, and one-third 10 to 20 years.

Consequently about half expect reunification to happen in the next 10 to 20 years, and one-fifth between five to 10 years from now.

Most say that an internal power struggle in the North would be the most likely agent to trigger a regime collapse in the North. Only one-third see economic failure as a more likely cause, and very few a public uprising.

The majority of experts believe that the North Korean regime will press ahead with reforms at the same timid rate, while one-fifth expect them to speed up. Yet there is little confidence that the reforms will help improve the North Korean economy.

Almost half of the experts feel it is China rather than the U.S. that holds the key to improving the North Korean economy, while some believe Washington’s and Beijing’s policies will have an equal impact. About equal numbers forecast that North Korea’s economic dependency on China will remain the same or get worse.

US Envoy on low prospects of restarting North Korean nuclear talks

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Glyn Davies, the Obama administration’s special envoy for North Korea policy, suggested Washington could accept “reversible steps” from North Korea on denuclearization in order to jump-start frozen negotiations, which also involve China, Japan, Russia and South Korea.

He emphasized, however, that Pyongyang could only return to the long-paralyzed six-party process if it accepted the “fundamental premise” that the negotiations were focused on the permanent shuttering of its nuclear weapons program.

“Davies’ answer suggests that if the six-party talks were to begin, the first actions the U.S. and its partners would demand would be aimed at limits that curb the D.P.R.K.’s nuclear and missile potential,” said Daryl Kimball, Arms Control Association executive director, in an email.

A stillborn U.S-North Korea agreement reached on Leap Day 2012 involved such a promise of a testing moratorium; Pyongyang was seen to quickly break faith with Washington when it weeks later unsuccessfully attempted to send a rocket into space.

The six-party talks format focuses on rewarding North Korea for its phased denuclearization with timed infusions of economic assistance and security agreements; the last round of negotiations took place in late 2008. Since that time, Pyongyang has detonated multiple atomic devices, carried out a number of apparent long-range ballistic missile tests, revealed a uranium enrichment capacity and restarted a mothballed plutonium-production reactor. Most recently, the world has been waiting to see if the North will make good on its repeated threats of conducting a fourth nuclear test.

Davies painted an overall dim picture of the current state of the nuclear impasse with the North: “The fact that they’re not interested in resolving the cases of Americans who have been imprisoned in North Korea tells you something about their current interest in going back to multilateral diplomacy.”

“This new leader has done us a favor, in a back-handed fashion, of making it quite clear that he has no intention of meaningfully denuclearizing, and that presents a problem. But it also is a clarifying moment,” said Davies, who formerly served as U.S. ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency.

[National Journal]

Park’s North Korea policies face headwinds

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From “trustpolitik” to the Dresden declaration, South Korean President Park Geun-hye’s signature North Korea initiatives face strong headwinds as the defiant neighbor ratchets up threats of another nuclear test and criticism against her administration.

While adopting a dual-track approach of reengagement and deterrence shortly after taking office, Park launched a campaign for unification as the centerpiece of her term’s second year, saying it would present a “bonanza” to all Koreans and a chance for the unified peninsula to make an economic leap forward.

She then proposed greater humanitarian aid and economic exchanges with the North to help lay the groundwork for eventual integration in a speech in the former East German city of Dresden late March.

For all her efforts, however, the peninsula appears to be confronting another flare-up in tension. Pyongyang has threatened a fourth atomic blast to beef up its deterrence, and restarted slandering its southern neighbor in breach of a February agreement.

Nonetheless, Seoul has vowed to stick to the Dresden project, which includes the establishment of inter-Korean cooperative offices, a joint agricultural complex and further economic support in line with the communist state’s denuclearization.

[The Korea Herald]

North Korea releases human rights report on the US

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In February, the United Nations released a remarkably comprehensive report on North Korea’s human rights abuses.

This week, North Korea released its own human rights reports on the United States. State news agency KCNA released an article titled “News Analysis on Poor Human Rights Records in U.S.” Here are the key points from the criticism:

  • “Under the citizenship act, racialism is getting more severe in the U.S. The gaps between the minorities and the whites are very wide in the exercise of such rights to work and elect.”
  • “52 percent of the Americans have said that racism still exists in the country while 46 percent contended that all sorts of discrimination would be everlasting.” 
  • “At present, an average of 300,000 people a week are registered as unemployed, but any proper measure has not been taken.” 
  • “The number of impoverished people increased to 46.5 million last year, and one sixth of the citizens and 20-odd percent of the children are in the grip of famine in New York City.” 
  • “The housing price soared 11.5 percent last year than 2012 and 13.2 percent in January this year than 2013, leaving many people homeless.” 
  • “All sorts of crimes rampant in the U.S. pose a serious threat to the people’s rights to existence and their inviolable rights.”
  • “The United Nations on April 10 put the U.S. on the top of the world list of homicide rates.”
  • “The U.S. also has 2.2 millions of prisoners at present, the highest number in the world.” 
  • “The U.S. government has monitored every movement of its citizens and foreigners, with many cameras and tapping devices and even drones involved, under the pretext of ‘national security.'”

[Washington Post]

The North Korean nuclear question

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North Korea says it may still go ahead and test a new kind of nuclear device following U.S. President Barack Obama’s visit to Seoul, but is keeping analysts guessing as to when that test might take place.

It is notoriously difficult to divine the intentions of North Korea’s isolated regime, particularly on nuclear tests when most crucial activity happens underground. Commercial satellite imagery is relatively infrequent and provides only a snapshot of what’s happening.

According to the newest images that have been released to the public, activity continues near tunnel entrances at the northeastern mountain testing site of Punggye-ri, where North Korea has conducted three nuclear tests since 2006, the latest in February 2013.

Experts believe the country has developed a handful of crude nuclear devices and is working toward building a warhead small enough to mount on a long-range missile, although most experts say that goal may take years to achieve.

Regarding what Pyongyang might mean by “a new kind of test”, Lim Eul Chul, a North Korea expert at South Korea’s Kyungnam University, said it could simultaneously conduct two nuclear blasts in two underground tunnels to show off its capability.

Another possibility: North Korea might try to detonate miniaturized forms of either plutonium- or uranium-based bombs, said nuclear expert Whang Joo-ho of Kyung Hee University in South Korea.

Lim at Kyungnam University said North Korea won’t likely face tougher U.N. sanctions even if it conducts a fourth nuclear test because of strained ties between the U.S. and Russia, both veto-wielding members of the U.N. Security Council, over the Ukraine issue. He added that China, also embroiled in disputes with the U.S. over Japan, won’t support tougher sanctions on North Korea, though it might agree on some form of punishment.

[AP]

Obama dismisses North Korea as weak pariah state

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North Korea is a weak “pariah state” whose heavily militarized border with South Korea marks “freedom’s frontier”, President Barack Obama told American troops in Seoul on Saturday.

The meeting place of the two countries is a division between a “democracy that is growing and a pariah state that would rather starve its people than feed their hopes and dreams”, he said.

Pyongyang’s continued pursuit of nuclear weapons is “a path that leads only to more isolation”, said Obama, as he dismissed the Stalinist state’s sabre-rattling.

“Anybody can make threats. That does not make you strong. Those things don’t come through force, they have to be earned.”

Obama also said the US-South Korean alliance was as “strong as it has ever been”.

“We don’t hesitate to use our military might to defend our allies and our way of life,” he told cheering troops and air force personnel.

[Xinmsn]

Obama hints at new sanctions for North Korea

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In a display of unity against North Korea’s provocations, President Barack Obama and South Korean President Park Geun-hye warned Pyongyang on Friday that it could face tougher sanctions if it follows through with threats to launch a fourth nuclear test.

Striking an even harsher tone than Obama, Park also suggested any test would trigger an undesirable nuclear arms race in the region and render further nuclear negotiations pointless.

North Korea will get “nothing except further isolation” if it proceeds with its test, Obama said at a joint news conference in Seoul. But he also acknowledged there are limits to what effects additional penalties can have on the country.

“North Korea already is the most isolated country in the world, by far,” Obama said. “Its people suffer terribly because of the decisions its leaders have made. And we are not going to find a magic bullet that solves this problem overnight.”

Still, he said, it’s important to look at new ways to pressure North Korea, including applying sanctions that have “even more bite.”

In 2009, North Korea walked away from six-party talks with the U.S., South Korea, Japan, Russia and China that offered financial incentives in exchange for denuclearization.

The White House said it was keeping close tabs on activity at North Korea’s nuclear test site. The website 38 North, which closely monitors North Korea, said commercial satellite imagery from Wednesday showed increased movement of vehicles and materials near what are believed to be entrances to two completed tunnels at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in what could be advanced preparations for an underground atomic explosion. But predicting such tests is notoriously difficult; the most crucial activity happens underground, out of aerial view.

[AP]

Earthquake off North Korea prompts nuclear test fears

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An earthquake off the coast of North Korea today sparked fears Kim Jong-Un may have carried out his threat to conduct more nuclear tests.

The magnitude-five tremor was detected 80 miles from the Korean Peninsula at around 3.48am local time, according to the United States Geological Survey.

It comes just two days after the sabre-rattling state threatened to launch a ‘new form’ of nuclear power tests – and hours after the North and South exchanged artillery fire near a disputed sea boundary in a heightening of tensions on the peninsula.

The force of today’s earthquake was similar to the 5.1-magnitude tremor registered in a North Korean mountain range from a previous nuclear test in December 2012. But its location at a depth of nearly 10 miles in the sea did not immediately suggest nuclear testing was the cause this time, it was reported by the Daily Telegraph.

 

Religious Persecution in North Korea

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The Commission of Inquiry on Human Rights in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), the report issued by the United Nations Human Rights Council, has a section dealing with “Religious Persecution” that also gives the history of Christianity in the isolated Communist country, where churches had thrived before the events of 1950-1953 civil war that left it a divided land.

As of 1950, Christian Solidarity Worldwide quoted an estimate of more than 28 percent of Korea’s population that had a religious belief. The 1950 Yearbook of the Workers’ Party of Korea placed the figure at almost 24 per cent.

The Korean War and pre-Kim Il Sung-ism movement periods have been described as the most vicious in the persecution of religious believers. “Religious people were killed, exiled and imprisoned. Christians were said to have been targeted the most as the movement of Christianity was much more organized than the other religions and because of its supposed connection with the USA.”

[Ecumenical News]

A revival of North Korean Christianity

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In 1988, North Korean authorities suddenly decided to build a Catholic and a Protestant church in Pyongyang. North Korean refugees say that many Pyongyangites were shocked one day when they saw a building in the neighborhood that looked remarkably like a church (from propaganda pictures), with a cross atop its spire. For decades, North Koreans had been told that such places could possibly be only dens of spies and sadistic butchers (their reaction was perhaps similar to the average D.C. resident if they found a big al-Qaeda recruiting center in their neighborhood, complete with a large neon sign).

At present, there are four officially tolerated churches in Pyongyang (two Protestant, one Catholic and one Orthodox). Opinions are divided on how authentic these activities are. In any case, these political shows in Pyongyang should not distract us from the real revival of North Korean Christianity, which quietly began in the late 1990s in the Sino-North Korean borderlands. In the late 1990s, many North Koreans fled to China trying to escape a disastrous famine in their country. In 1998-99, the number of such refugees peaked at around 200,000.

Most of them established good contacts with ethnic Koreans in China. By that time, many Korean-Chinese had been converted to Christianity – which is increasingly seen worldwide as the major religion of the Korean diaspora. Thus, refugees came into contact with South Korean missionaries and/or their ethnic Korean converts, and many of them were converted. It helped that Korean churches in China were perhaps the only institutions that were ready to provide the refugees with assistance and a modicum of protection. Experienced refugees told novices that in the most desperate situation, when all else fails, they should look for a church.

Churches were also very involved with a kind of underground railway that helped North Korean refugees in China to move South. Inside South Korea, church communities are the major institution that provides otherwise generally neglected North Korean refugees with support and protection. One should not therefore be surprised that a significant number of North Korean refugees convert to Christianity soon after their arrival to the South.

Meanwhile in China, from around 2000, many missionaries began to train refugees to spread Christianity in North Korea proper. Many converts were indeed willing to take the risk and go back to their native villages and towns with Korean-language Bibles and other literature. Thus, North Korea’s catacomb church was born.

The North Korean government does not look upon such developments favorably. If a returning refugee is known to be in contact with missionaries he/she will face far more severe punishment. For the average non-religious border crosser, the punishment is likely to be a few months of imprisonment, but known religious activist is likely to spend 10 years in prison.

Nonetheless, the risks do not deter either missionaries or converts.

[NKNews.org]