Park’s North Korea policies face headwinds

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From “trustpolitik” to the Dresden declaration, South Korean President Park Geun-hye’s signature North Korea initiatives face strong headwinds as the defiant neighbor ratchets up threats of another nuclear test and criticism against her administration.

While adopting a dual-track approach of reengagement and deterrence shortly after taking office, Park launched a campaign for unification as the centerpiece of her term’s second year, saying it would present a “bonanza” to all Koreans and a chance for the unified peninsula to make an economic leap forward.

She then proposed greater humanitarian aid and economic exchanges with the North to help lay the groundwork for eventual integration in a speech in the former East German city of Dresden late March.

For all her efforts, however, the peninsula appears to be confronting another flare-up in tension. Pyongyang has threatened a fourth atomic blast to beef up its deterrence, and restarted slandering its southern neighbor in breach of a February agreement.

Nonetheless, Seoul has vowed to stick to the Dresden project, which includes the establishment of inter-Korean cooperative offices, a joint agricultural complex and further economic support in line with the communist state’s denuclearization.

[The Korea Herald]

New top military officer as North Korean purge continues

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In a report published on the country’s May Day celebrations, the North Korean government mouthpiece KCNA news agency named Hwang Pyong-so, one of Kim Jong Un’s closest confidantes, as director of the General Political Bureau of the Korean People’s Army.

The role is the top military position after Kim, who is supreme commander of the armed forces.

Previously, Vice Marshal Choe Ryong-hae held the position. While in the job, Choe was widely regarded by North Korea watchers as second only to Kim in terms of political clout. However, speculation about his position has been rife following reports that he may have been arrested, some months ago.

In the same piece that effectively coronated Hwang, Choe was referred to as a party secretary in charge of labor groups — a relatively minor position.

A Unification Ministry source told the New York Times that it is unlikely that Choe has been purged.

Seasoned North Korea watchers echo the line. An editorial on the independent specialist site NK News said that “it appears … Choe is not being purged so much as being gradually phased out of power,” while 38 North said that the news showed “so far no indication that it represents another broad purge such as occurred with Jang Song Thaek last December.”

[CNN]

North Korea defends itself before UN Human Rights Council

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North Korea defended its human rights record in a debate at the U.N. Human Rights Council in Geneva. The Rights Council examined the record of the DPRK as part of its scrutiny of each U.N. member state every four years.

Robert King, U.S. special envoy for North Korean human rights issues, voiced concern at the commission of inquiry’s findings of “systematic, widespread, and gross human rights violations” committed by officials and institutions. “We are alarmed by the widespread use of forced labor, including child labor in detention facilities, and we remain concerned about instances of violence against women, forced abduction of foreign nationals, and reports of torture and abuse in detention facilities,” King told the Geneva forum.

King called for Pyongyang to shut political prison camps and to release all inmates. Ri Kyung Hun of North Korea’s Supreme People’s Assembly said: “I’d like to reiterate that there is no political prison camp in our vocabulary nor prison camp in law or in practice.”

The North Korea’s delegation also said that Christian groups were trying to recruit North Korean migrants along China’s border. “There are in the northeastern area of China so-called churches and priests exclusively engaged in hostile acts against the DPRK. They indoctrinate the illegal border crossers with anti-DPRK ideology and send them back to the DPRK with assignments of subversion, destruction, human trafficking and even terrorist acts,” it said.

King also called for North Korea to end what he called “state-sponsored discrimination” based on the “songbun” system, which rates citizens based on their family’s political background as “loyal”, “wavering” or “hostile”.

So Se Pyong, North Korea’s ambassador, said his country was taking positive steps, including improving legal guarantees, education, and the rights of women, elderly and the disabled.

China’s envoy, Chen Chuangdong, praised “progress” by North Korea in the human rights field, but urged its ally to construct more health facilities and housing in rural areas.

[Read full VoA article] 

North Korea releases human rights report on the US

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In February, the United Nations released a remarkably comprehensive report on North Korea’s human rights abuses.

This week, North Korea released its own human rights reports on the United States. State news agency KCNA released an article titled “News Analysis on Poor Human Rights Records in U.S.” Here are the key points from the criticism:

  • “Under the citizenship act, racialism is getting more severe in the U.S. The gaps between the minorities and the whites are very wide in the exercise of such rights to work and elect.”
  • “52 percent of the Americans have said that racism still exists in the country while 46 percent contended that all sorts of discrimination would be everlasting.” 
  • “At present, an average of 300,000 people a week are registered as unemployed, but any proper measure has not been taken.” 
  • “The number of impoverished people increased to 46.5 million last year, and one sixth of the citizens and 20-odd percent of the children are in the grip of famine in New York City.” 
  • “The housing price soared 11.5 percent last year than 2012 and 13.2 percent in January this year than 2013, leaving many people homeless.” 
  • “All sorts of crimes rampant in the U.S. pose a serious threat to the people’s rights to existence and their inviolable rights.”
  • “The United Nations on April 10 put the U.S. on the top of the world list of homicide rates.”
  • “The U.S. also has 2.2 millions of prisoners at present, the highest number in the world.” 
  • “The U.S. government has monitored every movement of its citizens and foreigners, with many cameras and tapping devices and even drones involved, under the pretext of ‘national security.'”

[Washington Post]

The North Korean nuclear question

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North Korea says it may still go ahead and test a new kind of nuclear device following U.S. President Barack Obama’s visit to Seoul, but is keeping analysts guessing as to when that test might take place.

It is notoriously difficult to divine the intentions of North Korea’s isolated regime, particularly on nuclear tests when most crucial activity happens underground. Commercial satellite imagery is relatively infrequent and provides only a snapshot of what’s happening.

According to the newest images that have been released to the public, activity continues near tunnel entrances at the northeastern mountain testing site of Punggye-ri, where North Korea has conducted three nuclear tests since 2006, the latest in February 2013.

Experts believe the country has developed a handful of crude nuclear devices and is working toward building a warhead small enough to mount on a long-range missile, although most experts say that goal may take years to achieve.

Regarding what Pyongyang might mean by “a new kind of test”, Lim Eul Chul, a North Korea expert at South Korea’s Kyungnam University, said it could simultaneously conduct two nuclear blasts in two underground tunnels to show off its capability.

Another possibility: North Korea might try to detonate miniaturized forms of either plutonium- or uranium-based bombs, said nuclear expert Whang Joo-ho of Kyung Hee University in South Korea.

Lim at Kyungnam University said North Korea won’t likely face tougher U.N. sanctions even if it conducts a fourth nuclear test because of strained ties between the U.S. and Russia, both veto-wielding members of the U.N. Security Council, over the Ukraine issue. He added that China, also embroiled in disputes with the U.S. over Japan, won’t support tougher sanctions on North Korea, though it might agree on some form of punishment.

[AP]

Diverse opinions on how the world should deal with North Korea

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North Korean defectors, now living in Seoul, were invited to share their thoughts on how the world can best help North Korea. Some excerpts:

Nayoung Koh, 25, defected North Korea in 2009, now attending university:
“The whole of the international community needs to simultaneously criticize the DPRK about its human record. In my experience – until early the early part of the last decade – capital punishment was commonly witnessed in North Korea and there were almost no criminal trials. However, some of these incidents and practices were photographed by cameras and satellites in the early 2000s and revealed to the world. When that happened, North Korea was severely criticized by the international community – and shortly afterwards there was a temporary halt to the practice of public capital punishment.”

Jinwoo Ham, mid-50s, had been a NK military officer for 22 years before he left:
“The international community needs to have heavy sanctions on the DPRK while it continues to violate the human rights of its own people and remains unwilling to give up nuclear weapons. That is the only way to make North Korea collapse. At the same time, the international community also needs to help North Koreans speak up and rebel against the current dictatorship. In order to achieve this, it is necessary to take advantage of all kinds of media including broadcasting, publications, and video to raise public awareness.”

Jimin Kang, 28, had been in the military before he defecting from Pyongyang in 2005:
“In my opinion, the greatest contribution the international community can make to North Korea will be in the form of economic aid and better quality education. You see, once North Korea opens up, the greatest priority will be in rebuilding the economy. … North Korea needs talented individuals to lead the country into the future. … Therefore what the people of North Korea really need is a transplant of the West’s educational environment into the DPRK.”

Read more 

North Korean defectors on humanitarian aid and human rights

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Se-hyok Oh, mid-30s, left North Korea in 1999. Now a journalist for Daily NK:
“The international community needs to let North Koreans know that it has a continuous and long-lasting interest in them. One method of achieving this is through humanitarian aid – though only under certain conditions. The international community needs to impose sanctions while informing Pyongyang of the many positive effects and consequences that would result from the DPRK making changes.”

Mina Yoon, 28, had been in the military before defecting in 2010. Now an university student in Seoul:
“What frightens ordinary North Koreans the most is either starving or being beaten to death. …While human rights need to be enhanced, food supplies still need to be provided. We also need to ensure that food aid goes to ordinary North Koreans, not the government. And it is important that those receiving aid should be informed where it comes from.”

Soon-kyung Hong, mid 60s, had been a DPRK Trade Councillor before he defected in 2000:
“The most important thing the international community can do is to speak out for the human rights of ordinary North Koreans. Also, the international community should impose additional sanctions on the North Korean government.”

[Read Guardian article] 

American intelligence admits it has no idea what Kim Jong-un is doing

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Almost all of the conventional wisdom from American intelligence agencies about North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has been wrong, Peter Sanger of The New York Times reports.

When Kim became supreme leader two years ago, U.S. intel thought his China-allied uncle would guide his transition to power. In December, Kim had his uncle and some of his allies executed.

The U.S. thought Kim would focus on an economic overhaul of the meager economy instead of further development of military programs. Instead, Kim has chosen to continue testing ballistic missiles, working toward an intercontinental missile that could threaten the U.S., in addition to promoting the North’s nuclear program, special operations forces, and long-range artillery.

As former State Department North Korea specialist Evans J. R. Revere told The Times: “We have failed. For two decades our policy has been to keep the North Koreans from developing nuclear weapons. It’s now clear there is no way they will give them up, no matter what sanctions we impose, no matter what we offer. So now what?”

Basically, the Hermit Kingdom has defied American expectations, and now the U.S. doesn’t know what to do about it.

Further, American spies are in the dark. The Washington Post, citing the leaked “black budget” of the U.S. intelligence community, reported last year that “there are five ‘critical’ gaps in U.S. intelligence about Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs, and analysts know virtually nothing about the intentions of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.”

[Stamford Advocate]

8 ways Kim Jong-Un has blindsided the US

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When Kim Jong-un took power in December 2011, many experts saw his ascent as an opportunity for the West to transform the last bastion of hard-line communism, believing that the untested leader would shy away from confrontation with the U.S. and even South Korea.

Instead, North Korea’s leader has “proved to be more ruthless, aggressive and tactically skilled than anyone expected,” Peter Sanger of The New York Times reports. Here are a few things North Korea’s supreme leader has done in the past 18 months to surprise and unnerve the U.S.:
1. The U.S. expected Kim to ease up on obtaining a nuke, but North Korea conducted a third nuclear test in February 2013. Kim is expanding the production of highly enriched uranium to get a more plentiful supply of nuclear fuel, and recently threatened to conduct “a new form of nuclear test.”
2. When the world thought that any North Korean rocket launch would be a farce, the North launched a rocket 1,600 miles in December 2012. The event is suspected of being a test for long-range ballistic missiles.
3. In April 2013, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency said it believed the North had learned how to make a “low-reliability” nuclear weapon small enough to be delivered by a ballistic missile.
4. “Defense officials say they now have less warning time on missile launches than they had two or three years ago because Mr. Kim has put his resources into mobile launchers that are regularly moved from tunnel to tunnel, making them harder for American satellites to track.” – New York Times
5. President Obama had been told that Kim’s uncle Jang Song-thaek would keep Kim in check, but Kim executed Jang, who was seen as an experienced diplomat with close ties to China.
6. While many waited for the North’s economy to collapse under sanctions, Kim has developed an underground illicit economy.
7. China, the world’s second-largest economy, has Kim’s back: Beijing recently rejected a damning report about horrific human-rights abuses by Kim’s regime, provides it with military hardware, and reportedly holds a trust fund for the young leader in Chinese banks.
8. Despite bans on military hardware, North Korea probably has drones to spy on South Korea, and the technology will get only better.

[Business Insider]

Obama dismisses North Korea as weak pariah state

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North Korea is a weak “pariah state” whose heavily militarized border with South Korea marks “freedom’s frontier”, President Barack Obama told American troops in Seoul on Saturday.

The meeting place of the two countries is a division between a “democracy that is growing and a pariah state that would rather starve its people than feed their hopes and dreams”, he said.

Pyongyang’s continued pursuit of nuclear weapons is “a path that leads only to more isolation”, said Obama, as he dismissed the Stalinist state’s sabre-rattling.

“Anybody can make threats. That does not make you strong. Those things don’t come through force, they have to be earned.”

Obama also said the US-South Korean alliance was as “strong as it has ever been”.

“We don’t hesitate to use our military might to defend our allies and our way of life,” he told cheering troops and air force personnel.

[Xinmsn]