Whispers of dissent and waning loyalty to Kim Jong-un

The North Korean regime has always relied on public loyalty to the ruling Kim dynasty to maintain its totalitarian grip on power. But following a series of apparent high-profile executions, sources within the country suggest that cracks are beginning to show amid a growing willingness to express dissatisfaction with Kim Jong-un’s leadership.

Criticism of the alleged recent execution of the defence chief, Hyon Yong-chol, has been circulating in the capital, sources say, although it is impossible to verify these claims independently.

“Kim’s popularity among citizens has rapidly declined,” a woman from South Pyongyan province, who asked to remain anonymous, said during a phone conversation on 31 May. “People say that considering the fact that Kim had executed dozens of high-ranking officials within the few years since coming to power, ‘there’s no hope left’.”

Criticism of Kim, who succeeded his father Kim Jong-il in 2011, has spread to other regions of the country, she says, with the common complaint being that the younger Kim is “even worse than his father”.

Another source in North Pyongyan confirmed reports of mounting criticism, adding that unlike during the Kim Jong-il era: “officials in rural regions and security agents are far more inclined to air grievances more publicly regarding the leadership. Not only residents but even party cadres sneer when they see footage broadcast idolising the leader,” he claimed. “Many just say, ‘this sucks’, and switch off the TV.”

[The Guardian]

A suggestion that US should offer to talk with North Korea

[Excerpts of a Forbes Opinion piece by Doug Bandow, a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute, and former Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan.]

As usual, no one knows what is going on in Pyongyang. Its internal politics appears to be bloodier than usual. Ironically, this might provide an opportunity for Washington to initiate talks over a more open bilateral relationship.

The latest rumor is that young dictator Kim Jong-un had his defense minister executed with anti-aircraft fire for disrespectful conduct, including falling asleep in meetings. If Hyon Yong-chol was killed quickly and unexpectedly, it probably wasn’t for dozing off, even in front of the new strongman. More likely the military man was plotting, or at least feared to be plotting, against the North’s leadership.

There has been striking turnover among party and military officials, including multiple appointments for some positions, since Kim Jong-un took over after his father’s death in December 2011. Half of the top 218 officials have been changed, according to the NIS. Even more dramatic was the arrest and execution of Kim’s uncle, Jang Song-taek, another “regent” seen as the regime number two, in December 2013. He was charged with treason, among other offenses, and his blood relatives were said to have been later executed as well.

In April the NIS reported that so far this year 15 high ranking North Korean officials, including an economist whose advice Kim Jong-un disliked, had been executed. Overall some 70 top apparatchiks and more than 400 lower level officials apparently have been killed this year.

This brutality towards the power elite sets Kim apart from his father and grandfather. While Kim Jong-un’s apparent penchant for executions may reflect a peculiarly sadistic nature, it more likely grows out of insecurity. Continuing turnover and executions after more than four years in charge suggests that Kim is not, or at least does not see himself, as yet secure.

Recent events suggest that something unusual is going on in that normally abnormal place.Kim’s bloody rule offers at least a possibility of a shift within the ruling elite. A clear American willingness to reward a more reform-minded government might aid the least bad actors in any power struggle. The Kim regime likely would not reject a process seeming to offer the respect it long has craved. Proposing talks and suggesting rewards would be the best response to an uncertain situation. Someday Pyongyang will change. Engagement is the best way to prepare for that day.

[Read full article]

Kim Jong-un’s vulnerability on display

Two recent events have shed some light on Kim Jong-un’s leadership: first he cancelled a planned trip to Moscow and now he appears to have removed the country’s formidable defense chief. (South Korea is now saying the once-powerful general, Hyon Yong-chol, has been “purged” but “not necessarily killed”.) But both occurrences point to vulnerabilities at the very top of the DPRK.

Ongoing purges suggest that some of the elite have forgotten the volatility of the young Kim, displaying a lack of respect for the institutions that sustain him and unwillingness to indulge his need to be the focal point of all adulation.

After two years of prefatory propaganda and three years of rule, it is revealing that analysts believe his authority is in question. “Internally, there does not seem to be any respect for Kim Jong-un within the core and middle levels of the North Korean leadership,” said Michael Madden, an expert at the 38 North thinktank.

If the reports are true, why should it be necessary for Kim to send such a piercing signal by removing a man who sat not just on the expanded politburo but also the all-powerful National Defense Commission? Surely the events of December 2013, when Kim Jong-un approved the purge and execution of his own uncle, should still be fresh in minds of North Korean elites.

In such a system, it is nearly impossible for figures other than Kim to accumulate public charisma or prestige. Lacking in any actual administrative expertise, Kim has traded fully upon his bloodline as his primary credential. The young leader’s celebrated “climb” to the summit of Mount Paektu this past month is a case in point: this was an occurrence which not just the whole of the armed forces but the entire nation was expected to celebrate.

There may be reasons for Hyon’s removal other than simple disrespect – he may have said or done something to embarrass the regime in Moscow, for instance, or have made inadequate preparations for Kim’s safety on the young leader’s presumptive first foreign trip.

But given what we know about how Kim operates and how he wishes to be perceived, it is more than possible that Hyon’s basic lack of interest in the personality cult is what led to his downfall.

[The Guardian]

Brutal killing Of N. Korean Military Chief reflects Kim Jong-Un’s insecurity

From an opinion piece by Donald Kirk, writing in Forbes:

The execution of North Korea’s military chief reflects Kim Jong Un’s deep insecurity about his grip over a recalcitrant elite of senior and mid-level officers and cadres.

Exactly what Hyon Yong-Chol, 66-year-old minister of the People’s Armed Forces, i.e., defense minister, did to incur Kim Jong-Un’s wrath is not clear, but the inference was that he had not only shown contempt for the young leader but also may have disagreed with him on crucial points.

North Korea has not announced the execution, but South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS), drawing upon a wide range of contacts, is seen as credible when it reveals such information. The question is why Kim Jong-Un would order Hyon’s extermination considering that Hyon had just returned from an international security conference in Moscow at which he was photographed displaying rows of ribbons on his chest.

The answer, in the view of Choi Jin-Wook, president of the Korea Institute of National Unification, is that Kim is feeling increasingly insecure in an amosphere of discontent in Pyongyang among many who grew to power under his father, Kim Jong-Il. Hyon’s execution, latest in an ongoing purge of top and mid-level cadres, “is a sign of the weakness of the regime,” Choi told me. “If they are strong enough, they have no reason to kill him.”

Kim Jong-un reportedly flies into rages at any sign of disagreement, much less disobedience. He has ordered at least 15 executions in recent  months and at least 75 in the past two years. according to the NIS.

Yonhap, the South Korean news agency, quoted an unnamed official who agreed there were “growing doubts about Kim’s leadership among North Korean ranking officials.” As a result, the official was quoted as saying, “Kim has deepened a reign of terror by purging them in negligence of proper procedure.”

North Korean defense chief executed on treason charges

North Korean defense minister Hyon Yong-Chol has been executed by anti-aircraft fire for disloyalty and showing disrespect to leader Kim Jong-un, South Korea’s intelligence agency says. Hundreds of officials watched Hyon’s execution at a military academy in northern Pyongyang on April 30, Han Ki-Beom, the deputy director of the South’s National Intelligence Agency, told a parliamentary committee.

Hyon, who was appointed to the post of Minister of the People’s Armed Forces less than a year ago, was apparently caught dozing off during formal military events and also talked back to Kim on several occasions.

Han told the committee that Hyon was executed with anti-aircraft fire – a method cited in various unconfirmed reports as being reserved for senior officials whom the leadership wishes to make examples of.

If confirmed, it marks another demonstration of Kim’s ruthlessness in dealing with even the most senior officials suspected of disloyalty, following the execution of his uncle and one-time political mentor Jang Song-Thaek in 2013.

It also points to possible power struggles within the top leadership, following Kim’s decision to cancel a scheduled visit to Moscow last week in order to deal with “internal issues”.

Kim has unleashed a series of purges to tighten his grip on power in the reclusive nation after his father Kim Jong-il died in December 2011. Late last month, the South’s National Intelligence Agency reported that Kim had ordered the execution of 15 senior officials so far this year, including two vice ministers, for questioning his authority.

[Sydney Morning Herald]

S. Korean spy agency claims Kim Jong Un ordered 15 executions this year

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ordered the execution of 15 senior officials this year as punishment for challenging his authority, South Korea’s spy agency told a closed-door parliament meeting on Wednesday.

A vice minister for forestry was one of the officials executed for complaining about a state policy, a member of parliament’s intelligence committee, Shin Kyung-min, quoted an unnamed National Intelligence Service official as saying.

“Excuses or reasoning doesn’t work for Kim Jong Un, and his style of rule is to push through everything, and if there’s any objection, he takes that as a challenge to authority and comes back with execution as a showcase,” Shin said. “In four months this year, fifteen senior officials are said to have been executed,” Shin cited the intelligence official as saying.

In 2013, Kim purged and executed his uncle, Jang Song Thaek, once considered the second most powerful man in Pyongyang’s leadership circle, for corruption and committing crimes damaging to the economy, along with a group of officials close to him.

Kim has also reshuffled close aides and senior officials repeatedly since taking office.

 [Reuters]

Kim Jong Un hints at further purges

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has signaled he may further purge top cadres, ordering senior Workers’ Party members to carry out a “campaign against abuse of power, bureaucrat-ism, irregularities and corruption”.

The party adopted the resolution at a politburo meeting to review his three years in power, the official Korean Central News Agency reported on Thursday.

The warning comes after Kim unleashed a series of purges to tighten his grip on power in the reclusive nation. The “Supreme Leader” last month executed a general who disagreed with him.

Kim ordered the killing of his uncle and one-time deputy Jang Song Thaek in 2013, after accusations of graft and factionalism, and had about 50 officials executed last year on charges ranging from graft to watching South Korean soap operas.

Since North Korea’s founding in 1948, Kim, his father, and his grandfather have eliminated people perceived as a threat to their dynastic rule and personal power. Charges have ranged from spying for the United States to gossiping about a leader’s mistress.

Kim, believed to be about 30, controls North Korea’s 1.2 million troops and nuclear arms program, having taken over the nation of 24 million people after Kim Jong Il died in December 2011.

[Bloomberg]