Category: DPRK Government

Door opening for new talks with North Korea?

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The United States and Japan opened the door Sunday to new nuclear talks with North Korea if the saber-rattling country lowered tensions and honored past agreements. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry told reporters in Tokyo that North Korea would find “ready partners” in the United States if it began abandoning its nuclear program.

The diplomats seemed to point the way for a possible revival of the six-nation talks that have been suspended for four years.

China long pushed has for the process to resume without conditions. But the U.S. and allies South Korea and Japan fear rewarding North Korea for its belligerence and the endless repetition of a cycle of tensions and failed talks that have prolonged the crisis.

At a news conference in Tokyo, Kerry stressed that gaining China’s commitment to a denuclearized North Korea was no small matter given its historically strong military and economic ties to North Korea. But he refused to say what the Chinese were offering to do concretely to pressure the North into abiding by some of the conditions it agreed to in a 2005 deal that required it to abandon its nuclear program.

In remarks to U.S. journalists, Kerry said that under the right circumstances, he even would consider making a grand overture to North Korea’s leader, such as an offer of direct talks with the U.S.

Kerry’s message of openness to diplomacy was clear, however unlikely the chances appeared that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s government would meet the American conditions.

Japan is the last stop on a 10-day trip overseas for Kerry, who visited Seoul and Beijing as well in recent days.

Intelligence on North Korea hard to read

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Excerpt of opinion article by Mike Chinoy, a former CNN Senior Asia correspondent:

The latest controversy over whether North Korea has the technology to fit a nuclear warhead on a missile is not the first time American intelligence agencies have been at odds in assessing Pyongyang’s capabilities. And it is not the first time the Pentagon’s intelligence arm, the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) has been out front in reaching the most alarmist conclusions about North Korea — one with which other U.S. agencies have disagreed.

The DIA assessment, disclosed by a Congressman at a hearing on April 11, was that the DIA has “moderate confidence” North Korea has developed a nuclear warhead that can be delivered by a ballistic missile. Within hours, however, James Clapper, Director of National Intelligence, released a statement saying the DIA report did not represent the consensus of the intelligence community, and that “North Korea has not yet demonstrated the full range of capabilities necessary for a nuclear armed missile,” — a view echoed by a Pentagon spokesman and the South Korean Defense Ministry.

Secretary of State John Kerry also noted that “it is inaccurate to suggest that the DPRK has fully tested, developed or demonstrated capabilities that are articulated in that report.”

The sharply different judgments about Pyongyang’s capabilities recall a similar episode in 1998, when a fierce debate erupted within the American intelligence community after U. S. spy satellites discovered an underground complex at Kumchangri, not far from North Korea’s main nuclear facility at Yongbyon. On August 17, 1998, the New York Times published a story that revealed the intelligence findings, turning what had been an internal intelligence debate into a public firestorm of controversy — just as the congressman’s revelations did on Thursday.

The Times report, with headline “North Korea Site An A-Bomb Plant, US Agencies Say” created major problems. In Washington, the Clinton administration came under attack for Pyongyang’s alleged violations of the Agreed Framework. And, unless the issue was handled with great skill, the tenuous link between the U.S. and North Korea that has existed since the 1994 deal would collapse.

In the spring of 1999, Chuck Kartman, Washington’s Special Envoy for Peace Talks with North Korea — nicknamed “Iron Butt” for his ability to sit patiently and listen to North Korean envoys spew out venom, bombast and threats across the negotiating table — engaged in protracted talks with his North Korean counterparts.

In May, Kartman convinced the North to agree to permit U.S. inspectors to visit Kumchangri. In addition, after initially demanding a payment of $300 million dollars for a one-time visit, North Korea eventually accepted a shipment of 100,000 tons of potatoes as the “price” of permitting the inspection.

Accompanied by a team of experts, Kartman flew to Pyongyang and the North Koreans took them to Kumchangri. To the Americans’ surprise and embarrassment, they found a large, empty underground cave. There was no evidence of a secret nuclear site.

Pentagon says North Korea could launch nuclear missile

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A U.S. intelligence report concludes that North Korea has advanced its nuclear know-how to the point that it could arm a ballistic missile with a nuclear warhead, a jarring revelation in the midst of bellicose threats from the unpredictable communist regime.

The new American intelligence analysis says the Pentagon’s intelligence wing has “moderate confidence” that North Korea has nuclear weapons capable of delivery by ballistic missiles but that the weapon was unreliable.

Notably absent from that unclassified segment of the report was any reference to what the DIA believes is the range of a missile North Korea could arm with a nuclear warhead. Much of its missile arsenal is capable of reaching South Korea and Japan, but Kim Jong Un has threatened to attack the United States as well.

At a separate hearing, U.S. officials offered their assessment of the North Korean leader, Kim Jong UN. They told the House Intelligence Committee that Kim, who took control after his father, Kim Jong Il, died in 2011, is trying to show the U.S., the world and his own people that he is “firmly in control in North Korea,” while attempting to maneuver the international community into concessions in future negotiations.

“I don’t think … he has much of an endgame other than to somehow elicit recognition” and to turn the nuclear threat into “negotiation and to accommodation and presumably for aid.”

AP

Meet the political elites of North Korea

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North Korea Chang and Kim Kyong huiKim Kyong-hui (right) is the younger sister of Kim Jong-un’s late father, Kim Jong-il. She and her husband, Chang Song-taek (left) have been central to North Korean politics for four decades and hold multiple titles in government.

When the inexperienced Kim Jong-un became the new leader in 2011, the couple were widely thought to be acting as his mentors. The couple were pictured flanking Kim Jong-un recently when he vowed to keep nuclear weapons as “the nation’s life treasure”.

Chang Song-taek was a trusted friend of Kim Jong-il’s, and rose through the ranks of the Korean Workers Party (KWP) after joining in the early 1970s and was elected to the Central Committee in 1992. But sometime in 2004, he suddenly disappeared from politics and was believed to have been arrested and sent for political “re-education”. Some observers said that despite his close relationship with Kim Jong-il, Mr Chang was considered to have become too influential with too large a personal support base and hence deemed a threat to the established order.

He emerged two years later to be seen regularly alongside Kim Jong-il, becoming more prominent after the leader’s suspected stroke in 2008. In June 2010, South Korean news agency Yonhap described Mr Chang as “guardian of Kim Jong-un”. North Korea watchers often consider him to be the real power behind the throne.

North Korean HyonHyon Yong-chol was promoted to the post of vice-marshal in the North Korean People’s Army on 17 July 2012. KCNA news agency later confirmed his as the chief of the general staff of the Korean People’s Army.

The previously little-known general rose to sudden prominence, replacing the powerful former army chief, Ri Yong-ho. Analysts said at the time that the reshuffle appeared to be an attempt by Kim Jong-un to stamp his authority on the army – and the apparent purge of Mr Ri suggested he is not averse to employing well-worn North Korean tactics to ensure loyalty to the leadership.

Very little is known about Mr Hyon, but he is believed to have been a general since 2010 and is a member of the central committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea. In a clear sign of his growing influence, he served on the committee for Kim Jong-il’s funeral in December 2011. 

North Korean choe ryong haeChoe Ryong-hae (pictured to left of Kim Jong-un) is seen as the chief image-maker of Kim Jong-un as a military leader, along with Mr Chang.

Mr Choe has for a long time been known to be close to the Kim family. An economics graduate, Mr Choe became a four-star general in September 2010.

In April 2012, at the major Workers’ Party conference which followed Kim Jong-un’s appointment, Mr Choe was suddenly made a vice-marshal despite having no military background – an unprecedented move in North Korea.

He is something of a toy soldier, says North Korean analyst Aidan Foster-Carter, seldom, if ever, spotted in military uniform but with a high-ranking military role. There is speculation that Mr Choe’s rapid rise could be behind the fall from grace of the top army official Ri Yong-ho, and that the pair may have fallen out. 

North Korean Choe Yong rimChoe Yong-rim is an elder statesman figure in North Korea. He was described by Yonhap as being a “long-time confidant of the late leader Kim Il-sung”, and he appears to have remained in favor with both his successors.

North Korean leaders have traditionally placed great importance on visiting and being photographed at factories, farms and industrial plants. In recent months, Mr Choe has regularly been seen on such visits, a sign of the trust placed in him and his level of influence. 

North Korean Kim Yong namKim Yong-nam is the chairman of the presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly – the highest political machine in the country – and is in effect the head of state, although the position does not in practice exist in North Korea.

The 85-year-old is technically responsible for foreign relations, and has been on several foreign trips, including to the Beijing Olympics in 2008. North Korea analyst Aidan Foster-Carter says those tours show he has some influence and is clearly listened to by the regime, but he is more a survivor than a key holder of power.

BBC

Kim Jong Un moves force boost in US missile defense

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Excerpts of an opinion piece by Rich Lowry, the editor of National Review:

Kim Jong Un has done the near-impossible. He has forced the Obama administration to admit that the United States needs more missile defense.

Opposition to missile defense constitutes one of the most treasured books of the Democratic arms-control gospel. Since it was introduced by Ronald Reagan in the 1980s, Democrats have reflexively denounced the idea of a defense against incoming ballistic missiles as wholly unworkable, impossibly expensive, and dangerously destabilizing.

Upon taking office, the Obama administration promptly nixed additional interceptors planned for deployment on the West Coast against the budding North Korean missile threat. George W. Bush had already put 30 interceptors at two sites on the West Coast, a symptom of his “Cold War mindset” that the supple and sophisticated Obama administration had no use for.

Rather than simply trust that a lunatic North Korean regime running its country like a vast prison camp will rationally calculate its self-interest as we would hope, the Obama administration says it is going to add back the 14 canceled interceptors. This will take the number of West Coast interceptors from 30 to 44, though with unnecessary expense and delay. The new interceptors should be online in 2017, or by the end of the president’s second term.

A Possible War Scenario

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Prior threats issued by North Korea have always been viewed by political analysis as a way to keep North Korea unjust demands in the worlds spot light and cover up its human rights violations which their government’s dictatorships have created alone.

Yet this time something in the way North Korea has taken a stance is different. In what is now viewed as an escalation in their threats, North Korea has chosen to cancel the frayed armistice that has existed for sixty years, … turn off their crisis hot line which connects them directly to South Korea, as well as threaten a preemptive nuclear attack against the United States.

If a war was to pursue, the causalities to South Korea could quickly mount into the millions, for just south of the DMZ is Seoul surrounded by Lncheon and Gyeonggi province, with a combined population of 25.6 million people. Economically speaking, any disruption of commerce to this area would have a far reaching effect on the world’s commerce just now emerging from the recession.

And in reality North Korea’s threats aimed at South Korea and the United States have also directly threaten the people of China, potentially making China North Korea’s pawn in a potential war! From the United States stand point of view any attack on South Korea by North Korea will force an immediate retaliatory response from the United States. Such a response will drag China into the war to support its long term ally, North Korea.

[Examiner.com]  

Asia’s odd couple China and North Korea

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In the U.N. negotiations over sanctions — this time as before — the Chinese have consistently played the role of watering down the degree of punishment imposed against Pyongyang. It remains to be seen whether Beijing intends to enforce the new measures.

The Chinese worry that coming down hard on Pyongyang, by cutting off their vital oil or food exports, could trigger a collapse of the North Korean government or other political instability on the peninsula. Beijing’s nightmares include a loose nukes problem and a humanitarian disaster.

Beijing also has fears about the effects of a North Korean collapse on the strategic balance in East Asia. If North Korea collapsed and the two Koreas unified, China might find astride its border a unified, U.S.-aligned Korea hosting American troops. Chinese analysts also commonly argue that North Korea serves as an important distraction for the U.S. military, which might otherwise train its focus on defending Taiwan.

Thus, despite the nuisance that North Korea regularly makes of itself, for all these reasons, it would be sorely missed by Beijing. But the days of “lips and teeth” (Mao Zedong’s’s famous statement about the closeness of Sino-North Korean relations) are clearly over. Chinese scholars and analysts increasingly express open frustration with Pyongyang’s behavior. In a meeting of an advisory group to the Chinese government — the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference — participants openly debated the question: whether to “keep or dump” North Korea?

China’s remarkable four decades of economic reform and growth have catapulted it to wealth and power — China is a global power, with global interests. China has a deep stake in maintaining stability in order to sustain its pathway to prosperity. China’s relationship with the United States can be tense [but] the two countries are vital trade partners that share a vast array of ties and often overlapping interests. Beijing also values its relationship with South Korea.

Because the specter of North Korea’s collapse could potentially destabilize the Korea peninsula, Beijing may continue to shield Pyongyang. But the two countries’ increasingly divergent interests suggest that China’s dissatisfaction with North Korea is only likely to grow.

[Excerpts of article by Jennifer Lind, associate professor of government at Dartmouth College]

Situation ramps up as North Korea declares 1953 armistice invalid

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In the last 60 years, diplomacy between North and South Korea has zigzagged from conciliatory to bellicose.

Now the North Korean army has declared invalid the armistice agreement that ended the Korean War in 1953.  The Rodong Sinmun newspaper reported that the Supreme Command of North Korea’s army had done so, adding, “The U.S. has reduced the armistice agreement to a dead paper.”

Part of the reason for the latest move are the joint exercises between the United States and South Korea. A bigger reason is tougher sanctions passed in the U.N. Security Council against North Korea in response to its nuclear test on February 12.

The Treasury Department announced today that it was designating North Korea’s primary exchange bank, the Foreign Trade Bank, as a proliferator of weapons of mass destruction. Treasury also made the same designation, against Paek Se-Bong, the chairman of North Korea’s Second Economic Committee, which oversees production of North Korea’s ballistic missiles. The designation freezes any assets in the U.S. and prohibits transactions with Americans.

The armistice that North Korea has scrapped is the agreement that ended the war between North and South Korea. It is a truce, rather than a peace treaty. The terms of the armistice included the creation of the Demilitarized Zone, a heavily fortified 155-mile long (250 kilometers) 2.5-mile wide line separating the two countries.

North Korea has also cut off direct phone links with South Korea at the inter-Korean border village of Panmunjom, according to South Korea’s Yonhap news agency. The phone line was the emergency link for quick, two-way communication between the two sides.

The Rodong Sinmun also reported the North Korean Supreme Command saying that it can now make a “strike of justice at any target anytime, not bound to the armistice agreement.”

President Obama’s spokesman said today that the White House is concerned by war threats coming from North Korea. A military clash could risk drawing in the United States, which has about 28,500 troops stationed in South Korea as part of the security alliance between the two countries.

How much bite will the latest UN sanctions have on North Korea?

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The U.N. Security Council unanimously passed tougher sanctions against North Korea Thursday. And after the vote U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice proclaimed, “These sanctions will bite, and bite hard.”

But will they?

The goal of the new sanctions is to stymie the activities of North Korean banks and cash couriers who might be funneling money to the secretive regime’s nuclear and missile programs. It will be tougher for the regime to move large sums of cash stuffed into suitcases, the US says.

The U.N. resolution also outlines measures to step up scrutiny of suspicious sea shipments and air cargo. And it expands restrictions to encompass several institutions and senior officials in the North’s weapons industry, as well as a range of materials and technology known to be used in uranium enrichment.

It also blocks the sale of luxury goods — such as yachts and certain high-end jewelry — to North Korea. “As a result, North Korea’s ruling elite, who have been living large while impoverishing their people, will pay a price” for the ongoing nuclear activities, Rice said.

Some doubt whether the new measures will make much difference. “As long as China allows North Korea to operate, as long as China provides food, energy assistance, and investment, the sanctions really don’t matter,” said Doug Bandow of the Cato Institute.

Ken Gause, an analyst with CNA, said the new sanctions won’t deter North Korea from building up its nuclear program. “North Korea last year inserted language into its constitution that the country is a nuclear power. To walk back from this, especially under pressure from the outside world, would undermine Kim Jong Un’s legitimacy and make him vulnerable. He will not do this,” said Gause.

UN passes new North Korea sanctions

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The U.N. Security Council unanimously passed tougher sanctions against North Korea today, hours after Pyongyang threatened a possible “preemptive nuclear attack.”

China, North Korea’s key ally, could have used its veto power to block the sanctions. Instead, after weeks of negotiating, it signed on to the final draft.

Leading up to the vote, Pyongyang ratcheted up its bellicose rhetoric. A spokesman for the North Korean foreign ministry suggested the United States “is set to light a fuse for a nuclear war.” As a result, North Korea “will exercise the right to a preemptive nuclear attack to destroy the strongholds of the aggressors and to defend the supreme interests of the country,” the country said in a statement carried by the state-run Korean Central News Agency.

Despite the strong language, analysts say North Korea is years away from having the technology necessary to mount a nuclear warhead on a missile and aim it accurately at a target. And, analysts say, North Korea is unlikely to seek a direct military conflict with the United States, preferring instead to try to gain traction through threats and the buildup of its military deterrent.

The rhetoric came not only in advance of the U.N. vote, but also as military drills take place on either side of the heavily armed border that divides the two Koreas.

“These sanctions will bite, and bite hard,” U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice said after the vote.