Few expect China to punish North Korea for latest nuclear test

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North Korea’s biggest nuclear test, conducted last week less than 50 miles from the Chinese border, sent tremors through homes and schools in China’s northeast. But hours later, there was no mention of the test on China’s state-run evening television news, watched by hundreds of millions of viewers.

Although North Korea remains nearly 100 percent dependent on China for oil and food, Chinese analysts say that Beijing will not modify its allegiance to North Korea or pressure the country to curtail its drive for a full-fledged nuclear arsenal, as the United States keeps requesting.

China sees living with a Communist-ruled nuclear-armed state on its border as preferable to the chaos of its collapse, says Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing. The Chinese leadership is confident that North Korea would not turn its weapons on China, and that China would be able to control its neighbor by providing enough oil to keep its economy afloat.

The alternative is a strategic nightmare for Beijing: a collapsed North Korean regime, millions of refugees piling into China, and a unified Korean Peninsula under an American defense treaty.

The Obama administration’s decision to deploy an advanced missile defense system THAAD in South Korea also gives President Xi Jinping of China less incentive to cooperate with Washington on a North Korea strategy that could aim, for example, to freeze the North’s nuclear capacity, the analysts said. THAAD has effectively killed any chance of China cooperating with the United States, they said. Beijing interprets the THAAD deployment as another American effort to contain China.

“China is strongly opposed to North Korea’s nuclear weapons but at the same time opposes the defense system in South Korea,” said Cheng Xiaohe, an assistant professor of international relations at Renmin University. It was not clear which situation the Chinese leadership was most agitated about, he said.

The longstanding fear that punitive economic action would destabilize North Korea makes it unlikely that Beijing would cooperate with the United States on more stringent sanctions at the United Nations, according to Chinese analysts.

So despite what Chinese analysts describe as the government’s distaste for Kim Jong Un and his unpredictable behavior, China’s basic calculus on North Korea remains firm. Mr. Xi would continue to ensure that North Korea remained stable.

[New York Times]

What does North Korea want?

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Friday’s nuclear test has erased any doubt that North Korea is serious about its nuclear program. But aside from fear-mongering and posturing — just what does North Korea hope to achieve?

Rather than a bargaining chip used to gain more foreign aid or access to the world stage, it appears that the country’s nuclear weapons program boils down to a matter of dignity and national pride.

First off, the latest nuclear test was timed to coincide with North Korea’s National Day on September 9. In the statement from North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Institute announcing the operation, it said it would continue to develop its weapons for “safeguarding its dignity and right to existence and genuine peace.”

It blamed the “racket of threat and sanctions against the DPRK kicked up by the US-led hostile forces… to find fault with the sovereign state’s exercise of the right to self-defense.”

Melissa Hanham, a senior research associate at the East Asia Nonproliferation Program (EANP) stated: “For years, we have mocked their nuclear and missile capabilities and 2016 seems to really be about demonstrating what they have and what they can do.”

“Clearly [North Korea doesn’t] care about what we think,” Christopher Hill, the former US ambassador to South Korea told CNN. “They don’t care about our admonitions. They don’t care about joining the international community… they certainly don’t care about the UN Security Council resolutions.”

Hill says there needs to be something more to bring about any change with Kim’s regime. “I think we need to sit down with the Chinese… and say, ‘Together we need to solve this,'” he said.

[CNN]

Is China impotent when it comes to North Korea’s actions?

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North Korea’s latest nuclear test will pile the pressure on China — the country’s economic benefactor and only real ally — to rein in Kim Jong Un’s regime.

But, even if it were willing, Beijing increasingly appears unable to influence its unruly neighbor.

“It won’t cut off economic ties completely; that would make China vulnerable to North Korea threats… and a potential collapse,” says Tong Zhao, an associate at the Carnegie Tsinghua Center for Global Policy in Beijing.

Relations between Pyongyang and Beijing have been frosty since Kim Jong Un succeeded his late father as dictator, promptly purging several key government figures — such as his uncle Jang Song Thaek — with strong ties to China.

Kim has never visited China as leader, nor has he met President Xi Jinping, despite reportedly lobbying to do so for several years.

Concerning the North Korean nuclear test back in January, Mike Chinoy, former CNN international correspondent and the author of “Meltdown: The inside story of the North Korean nuclear crisis,” had called it a “real slap in the face” for China.

In March, China joined the international community in placing the toughest ever sanctions on the country. Speaking on Friday, Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying declined to say if China would support new, tougher sanctions.

[CNN]

North Korea carries out biggest ever nuclear test

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The United States condemns North Korea’s Friday nuclear test “in the strongest possible terms as a grave threat to regional security and to international peace and stability,” President Barack Obama said in a statement.

North Korea said it has hit the button on its fifth and potentially most powerful nuclear test Friday morning, claiming to have successfully detonated a nuclear warhead that could be mounted on ballistic rockets. State media said the test would enable North Korea to produce “a variety of smaller, lighter and diversified nuclear warheads of higher strike power.”

A blast detected in North Korea around 9 a.m. local time (8:30 p.m. ET) is estimated to have had the explosive power of 10 kilotons, almost twice as large as its most recent test in January, said Kim Nam-wook of South Korea’s Meteorological Administration. (By comparison, the nuclear bomb that the United States dropped on Hiroshima in World War II yielded about 15 kilotons.)

South Korea, Japan and China condemned the test, saying it was a clear violation of UN Security Council resolutions. The Security Council plans to hold an emergency meeting on the issue Friday, a senior US official and a UN official said.

Seismic activity was detected Friday morning near Punggye-ri — the same location as four other tests. The US Geological Survey reported a 5.3-magnitude earthquake but later termed it an explosion.

Though North Korea has continued to improve its nuclear and missile capabilities, it has yet to pair the two successfully. But concern has been growing that the country is testing weapons at an unprecedented pace this year, CNN international correspondent Paula Hancocks said.

The test is another slap in the face to the North’s chief ally China which has been under pressure to rein in its behavior, and diminishes any chance of a resumption of six-country talks on North Korea’s nuclear program.

[CNN/AFP]

Large increase in North Korean defectors from the middle class

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It’s understandable why many North Koreans desire to flee the Hermit Kingdom. What’s interesting to note, however, is the economic class of defectors that have found their way out of North Korea.

According to a survey from the Korean Unification Ministry, the percentage of defectors from the “middle-class” rose from 19% (in 2001) to 55.9% after 2014.

The increase stems from the fact that more defectors from higher statuses in the North possess the resources to escape, said the Unification Ministry.

The latest high-profile defection comes from Thae Yong-Ho, North Korea’s deputy ambassador to London. As one of the highest-ranking North Korean officials to have defected, it wouldn’t be farfetched to believe that others will eventually follow suit.

Although the reasons to cross the border, or in some exceptional cases remain away from, are numerous, it’s noteworthy that one of their highly-publicized punishments in North Korea seems to have decreased: North Korea leader Kim Jong Un is estimated to have executed about 130 officials in the 5 years he’s been in power, while Kim Jong Il, his father, had put to death over 2,000 officials in a 6 year span.

[Business Insider]

North Korea defections to South Korea climbs by 15%

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The number of North Koreans defecting to South Korea rose 15 percent in the first eight months of 2016 compared with last year, government data showed Wednesday. From January to August, 894 North Koreans arrived in South Korea compared with 777 the previous year’s eight months, according to data by the Ministry of Unification.

In all, the total number of North Korean defectors has reached 29,688.

Defection peaked in 2009 as the previous regime of Kim Jong Il had widespread famine and slowed since 2011 as new leader Kim Jong Un strengthened border control and surveillance over the country’s population.

But it increased this year as North Koreans are escaping his stronger control of the communist country.

Another reason is economic. “Compared with the past, the number of North Korean defectors seeking more opportunities and better lives for themselves in South Korea has increased,” a government official said.

Overseas workers and diplomats are defecting as North Korea is pressuring them to send more money to the North.

“The costs [North Koreans have to bear] for defections have increased as the Kim Jong Un regime has intensified crackdowns on those who attempt to flee the nation,” Jeong Joon-hee, South Korea’s unification ministry spokesman, told a press briefing.

[UPI]

Matchmaking helps North Korean defectors find spouses in South Korea

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Born and raised in Cheongjin located in the northeastern part of reclusive North Korea, Park Myeong-hee escaped her home country in 2012, leaving behind all of her beloved family and friends.

[Among her challenges in South Korea] it was hard to meet somebody. She didn’t have anyone who could fix her up on a blind date. It was when she happened upon an online site exclusively intended for matchmaking between North Korean women and South Korean men that she made headway.

Park is one of the steadily increasing number of North Korean defectors seeking to find their lifelong partners in the South through matchmaking companies, whose business has been growing fast in recent years. There are no official figures, but industry experts say that the number of these matchmaking companies stood at around 10 in the early 2010s but has risen to around 70 these days.

NK World is one of them and known as a leading matchmaking company. Kim Soo-jin, CEO of the company, is a North Korean defector herself who left her home country with her husband and a seven-year-old daughter in January 2006.

Small business owners, office workers and even public servants are signing up. Kim said that recent TV programs featuring North Korean women dating South Korean men might be of great help in removing any negative images attached to the women from the communist country with which the South technically remains at war even to this day.

North Korean women are known for their strong commitment to the family. Adding to that, since many have lost everything in the North by opting to defect, they tend to cherish their marriage no matter what.

[Business Standard]

 

China has a new detention center for North Korean refugees

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China appears to have built a new detention center near the North Korea border, according to an exclusive South Korea press report on Tuesday.

The camp, according to a China-based source who spoke to Newsis on the condition of anonymity, was built to keep arrested North Korean refugees in China. North Korean defectors are apparently kept at the facility until they are repatriated to the North, according to the source.

Photographs of the camp, located near the Chinese city of Tumen, Jilin Province, show a blue building with an arched roof. Facilities include the blue building, a management office and a watchtower next to the detention center.

The status of North Korean refugees in China remains uncertain. Beijing does not recognize the defectors as refugees, and have previously cooperated with Pyongyang in repatriating North Koreans who have fled their country.

[UPI]

Floods kill 60, displace 44,000 in North Korea

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Flooding following heavy rain has killed 60 people and left over 44,000 homeless in North Korea, the United Nations said Tuesday, after the country reported that a northeastern river suffered its worst-ever flood.

Pyongyang said Friday the Tumen river, which partially marks the border with China and Russia, experienced the biggest flood ever recorded due to a rainstorm that began four days earlier.

Nearby areas including Musan and Hoeryong were hard hit, with 60 dead and five percent of the population homeless, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said in a statement. Nearly 9,000 buildings were destroyed or damaged with 10,000 hectares (24,711 acres) of farmland flooded, it said, adding joint relief efforts involving the UN and the North were underway.

The impoverished nation is vulnerable to natural disasters, especially floods. Its territory is largely composed of mountains and hills that have long been deforested for fuel or turned into terraced rice fields. This allows rainwater to flow downhill unchecked.

[AFP]

North Korean ballistic missile launch during G20 meeting in China

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North Korea fired three ballistic missiles Monday morning, according to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, towards the Sea of Japan. Sources at Japan’s Defence ministry said the missiles likely landed in the sea 200 to 250 km (120-160 miles) west of Hokkaido, Japan’s northern-most main island.

This comes just under two weeks after Pyongyang test-fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile which entered Japan’s air defense identification zone, the first time that had happened.

It also comes at a potentially embarrassing time for North Korea’s only real ally, China, which is currently hosting the Group of Nations summit in Hangzhou.

At the G20, Chinese President Xi Jinping told his South Korean counterpart on Monday that Beijing opposes the deployment of the United States’ THAAD missile defense system to South Korea, according to China’s official Xinhua News Agency. The stated purpose of the THAAD system is to defend South Korea from missile attack from North Korea.

[CNN/Reuters]